A Flawed Trade System in Europe

Peter Zeihan 3 min

Europe cannot establish a viable alternative international trade order without the U.S. Navy. The European Union will fail to ratify major new trade deals due to agricultural protectionism and internal delays.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Europe lacks the capacity to project naval power far past its own front yard.

  • 0:00

    Most trade deals negotiated in the last 30 years excluded agriculture entirely.

  • 2:14

    The Australia-EU deal faces ratification delays due to heavy agricultural restrictions.

  • 2:14

    European farmers and trade associations oppose the Australian deal's terms.

  • 2:14

    The first large-scale transfer of Australian goods to Europe will not occur until 2040.

5:07

What's Wrong with the EU-India Trade Deal?

Peter Zeihan

There is no free trade on a transcontinental or trans-oceanic basis unless there's freedom of the seas and global rule of law. Countries must develop an internal regional structure to support trade rather than seeking global deals.

8:56

The End of the WTO

Peter Zeihan

The collapse of the WTO will trigger decades of conflict among states and within states as existing models fail. The collapse of the WTO will trigger decades of conflict among states and within states as existing models fail.

4:12

U.S. Trade Talks with the UK

Peter Zeihan

The United Kingdom must accept US regulatory dominance because its demographics make independence impossible. The UK has no viable alternative but to submit to US terms.

5:45

Trump Trade Talks: US-EU Strike a Deal

Peter Zeihan

The headline deal is a memorandum of understanding with no legal binding power. Real negotiations on investment and irritants have not even begun yet.

5:53

Canada's China Option

Peter Zeihan

Canada has no viable alternative trading partner because all provinces trade more with the United States than with each other. The United States gains a uniquely beneficial deal by accessing Canadian workforce and infrastructure without paying for them.

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