Trump Trade Talks: US-EU Strike a Deal

Peter Zeihan 6 min

The headline deal is a memorandum of understanding with no legal binding power. Real negotiations on investment and irritants have not even begun yet.

  • Donald Trump

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Headline Deal

    Trump threatens tariffs on European trade, eventually settling at 15% with no retaliation.

  2. 2:03

    The Energy Commitment

    Europe agrees to buy $750 billion in US energy over three years, a number that defies reality. Europe promises half a trillion dollars in US investment, though the EU lacks the budget.

  3. 4:27

    The Legal Reality

    The agreement is merely a memorandum of understanding with no legal binding power.

Key points

  • 0:30

    The headline agreement sets tariffs at 15% with no European retaliation.

  • 1:26

    European trade relies on unique goods that cannot be sourced elsewhere.

  • 2:03

    The $750 billion energy target exceeds total US global exports by more than double.

  • 2:03

    Forcing all energy to Europe would slash US LNG exporter profits by over two-thirds.

  • 2:03

    The EU executive lacks the budget to fund such massive energy purchases.

  • 2:03

    Individual member states hold the legal authority to buy energy, not the EU.

  • 4:27

    The EU institution has no legal liability to force member states to fulfill promises.

  • 4:27

    Real negotiations on investment and irritants have not even begun yet.

Who and where

People · 1

  • Drawing of Donald Trump

    Donald Trump 3

    President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)

    Photo 1

1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)

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