So You Want to Take Iran's Oil…
Peter Zeihan
6 min
There is no good way to take other countries' oil. We will be in occupation in the Middle East just like we were for the bulk of the last 25 years.
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Donald Trump
Chapters
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0:00
The Futility of Taking Iran's Oil
There is no good way to take other countries' oil, specifically Iran.
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0:21
South Pars Field Consequences
Taking the South Pars field would shut down natural gas production and trigger a humanitarian disaster.
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1:42
Khuzestan Province Challenges
Capturing Khuzestan requires taking all of the province and adjacent territory to control oil. The Arab population in Khuzestan is an oppressed minority experiencing population decline due to poverty.
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3:45
Failed Nation Building Precedent
The United States failed to build a stable government in southern Iraq after overthrowing the central authority. Occupying Khuzestan would involve tens of thousands of American troops resisting the rest of the country.
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5:14
Upcoming Marine Deployments
Two loads of Marines with Marine Expeditionary Units are moving toward the Persian Gulf. The planned military action will result in a disaster and a long-term occupation.
Key points
- 0:00
There is no good way to take other countries' oil.
- 0:21
Taking the South Pars field would shut off natural gas production because there is no export capacity.
- 0:21
Taking the South Pars field would trigger war crimes level of humanitarian disaster by turning off power.
- 1:42
Khuzestan has 70 to 80% of the country's oil production.
- 1:42
Taking Karg Island does not give control over production, only the ability to shut off exports.
- 1:42
To take the oil, one must capture all of Khuzestan province and adjacent territory.
- 1:42
The population in Khuzestan consists mostly of Arabs who are an oppressed minority.
- 1:42
The Iranian government siphons off all the oil, leaving nothing for the Arabs in Khuzestan.
- 1:42
This poverty causes Khuzestan to be one of the few parts of Iran experiencing population decline.
- 3:45
The United States failed in southern Iraq where the locals hated them more than everyone else.
- 3:45
Occupying Khuzestan would involve tens of thousands of American troops resisting the rest of the country.
- 5:14
The Trump administration is planning to use Marine Expeditionary Units in the Persian Gulf.
Who and where
People · 1
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Donald Trump 3
President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)
Photo 1
1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)
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