France Hits the Demographic Point of No Return

Peter Zeihan 4 min

Countries aging out now face economic dissolution because the world is no longer young enough to buy their exports. Economic dissolution is expected within a decade for Germany and China due to rapid aging.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    France Hits Demographic Point of No Return

    France now has more deaths than births, joining the US and New Zealand as exceptions among first-world nations in population decline. Germany hit this point in 1972 or 1973 and has been in decline for about 50 years. France still has many people aged 20 to 50, but those numbers will start declining in about 20 years. The US is estimated to hit France's current position in about five years due to smaller generations and anti-migration policies.

  2. 2:13

    Global Aging and Economic Dissolution

    Germany aged out when there were many young people globally to export to, but the US and France will age out when developing countries like Chile, Colombia, and Thailand have already crossed the demographic Rubicon. China officially hit this point about five years ago, though statistics suggest it was 15 years ago, with a birth rate drop of 17% in one year. Economic dissolution is expected within a decade for Germany due to half-century movement, and within a decade for China due to rapid aging.

Key points

  • 0:00

    France now has more deaths than births.

  • 0:00

    Germany hit this point in 1972 or 1973.

  • 0:00

    France will take another 20 years before numbers start to decline.

  • 0:00

    The US is estimated to hit France's current position in about five years.

  • 0:00

    The Trump administration is turning gung-ho against migration.

  • 0:00

    The US will likely be a net zero growth population last calendar year.

  • 0:00

    More deaths than births by natural causes is expected by 2030.

  • 2:13

    China officially hit this point about five years ago.

  • 2:13

    The Chinese birth rate dropped by 17% in one year.

  • 2:13

    Economic dissolution is expected within a decade for Germany and China.

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