The End of the Shadow Fleet? – French Edition

Peter Zeihan 4 min

The French seizure marks the start of dismantling the shadow fleet, causing severe economic pain for Russia and Iran. The next six months will be wild in energy markets as the fleet is dismantled.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    French Seizure of Shadow Fleet Vessel

    France intercepts a Russian-flagged oil tanker for suspected sanctions violations. This marks the first time military force is used to enforce sanctions on shadow fleet vessels. NATO nations are poised to seize remaining shadow fleet vessels in narrow choke points. A maritime services company has applied to manage, buy, and permanently dismantle the fleet.

  2. 2:19

    Fleet Composition and Vulnerability

    The fleet consists mostly of old, decommissioned vessels that are accidents waiting to happen. Experts predict over one hundred vessels could be removed within the next six months.

  3. 2:41

    Scale of Potential Disruption

    Removing the fleet could eliminate up to five million barrels of daily crude oil supply. Iran and Russia will face severe economic pain as their crude sales channels vanish.

Key points

  • 0:00

    France seized a shadow fleet vessel for carrying sanctioned oil.

  • 0:00

    This is the first instance of military force enforcing sanctions on the fleet.

  • 0:00

    NATO nations will likely seize remaining vessels in narrow choke points.

  • 0:00

    A company applied to buy, pay for, and dismantle the fleet permanently.

  • 2:19

    Most vessels in the fleet are old, decommissioned ships.

  • 2:41

    The fleet carries approximately five million barrels of crude daily.

  • 2:19

    Over one hundred vessels could be removed within six months.

  • 2:41

    Iran and Russia will suffer most from the loss of crude sales.

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