Japan's Debt Crisis Is Just the Beginning
Peter Zeihan
8 min
The structural nature of the environment demographically and strategically is arguing for far bigger deficits moving forward. I don't know what is going to happen with debt.
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Barack Obama
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Donald Trump
Chapters
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0:00
Japan's Unique Debt Calculation
Explains how Japan hides its true debt by counting planned spending as income.
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1:37
The True Scale of Japanese Debt
Reveals that including local debt and pension arrears makes Japan the most indebted nation.
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3:23
Global Debt Trends and Demographics
Highlights that US and European spending is rising due to aging populations.
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5:28
Europe's Military Spending Necessity
States Europe must ignore budget laws to fund massive military rebuilding against Russia. Argues that global finance relies on population growth, which no longer exists. Suggests Japan might declare all debt null and void to reset the economy. Concludes that while a crisis is possible, no one can predict exactly what will happen.
Key points
- 1:37
Japan counts planned spending as income rather than deficit.
- 1:37
Total national debt including local and pension arrears reaches 400% to 500% of GDP.
- 3:23
US government spending has exceeded 5% of GDP for over a decade.
- 5:28
Europe must increase military spending to 10% to 15% of GDP to prepare for war.
- 5:28
Current economic models rely on population growth, which is no longer true.
- 5:28
Japan might declare all debt null and void through a Tokusai event.
- 5:28
No one can predict exactly what will happen with global debt.
- 7:26
Planning for a specific outcome like Tokusai is not advisable.
Who and where
People · 2
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Barack Obama 1
44th President of the United States (2009–2017)
Photo 1
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Donald Trump 1
President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)
Photo 2
1. Photo: Official White House Photo by Pete Souza, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Barack Obama)
2. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)
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