Russia’s Ukraine War Lessons Are Hitting the Gulf

Peter Zeihan 3 min

Russia has shared drone lessons with Iran, forcing the Western Gulf to run out of interceptors quickly. The Western Gulf is very close to running out of defensive firepower against incoming drones.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Russian Sharing of Drone Tactics

    Russia shares drone lessons with Iran. Shaheds use simple chips for preset routes.

  2. 1:00

    Swarm and Weave Strategies

    Flying in groups and weaving routes overwhelms defenses. Western Gulf interceptors are running out quickly.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Russia has provided targeting information to America's foes since the early days of the war on terror.

  • 0:00

    Iranian Shahed drones use small NAND chips that do not require power to hold memory.

  • 1:00

    Flying Shaheds in groups ensures at least one gets through air defense.

  • 1:00

    Weaving different routes for each drone makes it harder for air defense to lock on.

  • 1:00

    Russia applied the Ukrainian drone strategy to Iranian Shaheds used against American targets.

  • 1:00

    The Western Gulf is running out of interceptors as Shaheds keep coming.

  • 1:00

    Forcing defenders to use more interceptors per target depletes defensive firepower quickly.

  • 1:00

    Western Gulf interceptor numbers are national security secrets, making exact depletion timing a guess.

  • 1:00

    Iran has fired at least 2,000 Shaheds, possibly closer to 3,000 in two weeks.

  • 1:00

    The Western Gulf is very close to running out of defensive firepower against incoming drones.

5:40

The Iran War: Enter Sting Interceptors

Peter Zeihan

Preserving global infrastructure now runs through Kiev, as Gulf states realize the need for Ukrainian tech. The best chance for preserving infrastructure runs through Kiev, and Gulf states will likely invest immense cash there.

4:34

The Future of Drone Tech: Russian Scale

Peter Zeihan

There is no way that Ukrainians are anywhere close to getting any degree of control over their airspace. If the Ukrainians do manage to launch a ground assault, they're going to be doing so under a hail of glide bombs because they can't really do much about it.

Map of the places in “Ukraine Just Absolutely HAMMERED Moscow…Again!” 18:54

Ukraine Just Absolutely HAMMERED Moscow…Again!

Paul J. Warburg

Ukraine is winning the war of attrition by using cheap, scalable drone swarms to overwhelm Russia's defenses, while Russia is forced into an unsustainable cycle of expensive missiles and depleted air defense systems. As Russia runs out of air defenses and concentrates them in Moscow, Ukraine will soon be able to strike targets across the Russian Arctic, Siberia, and Far East.

7:09

Ukraine’s New Drone Killer: The Octopus

Peter Zeihan

The Octopus drone represents a potential shift in warfare if it can be produced cheaply enough to hunt other drones. We will know by the end of the year if this new defense works or not.

6:15

The Iran War: Interceptors and a Costly Mistake

Peter Zeihan

The United States's decision to cut off military connections with Ukraine has a big price because that technology hasn't filtered up to the U.S. military. The American decision to not engage the Ukrainians where they have been defending themselves against Russian-launched Iranian Shahed drones now for three years is having a real price.

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