The Future of Drone Tech: Russian Scale

Peter Zeihan 5 min

There is no way that Ukrainians are anywhere close to getting any degree of control over their airspace. If the Ukrainians do manage to launch a ground assault, they're going to be doing so under a hail of glide bombs because they can't really do much about it.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Russian Drone Evolution

    Russia is adapting drone technology by adding jet engines to existing platforms, significantly increasing their speed and threatening Ukrainian air defenses. Russian drones now travel at 400 miles per hour, making them too fast for most Ukrainian interceptors to catch.

  2. 2:17

    Air Superiority Gap

    Despite Ukrainian advances, they still lack control over their own airspace and cannot stop Russian glide bombs effectively. Russia mounts anti-aircraft missiles on drones, forcing Ukrainian aircraft to face cheap disposable threats instead of traditional fighters.

  3. 2:48

    Inevitable Ground Assault

    As long as Russia maintains air dominance with these drones, any Ukrainian ground assault will be met with relentless glide bomb attacks.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Most battlefield breakthroughs since March have been Ukrainian.

  • 0:00

    Russia possesses a powerful military industrial complex.

  • 0:00

    Russian drones now use jet engines for propulsion.

  • 0:00

    New Russian drones travel at 400 miles per hour.

  • 0:00

    Ukrainian interceptors cannot catch the fast-moving drones.

  • 0:00

    Interceptors often fail when they cannot catch up to targets.

  • 0:00

    Ukraine lacks control over its own airspace.

  • 2:17

    Russia mounts anti-aircraft missiles on drones.

  • 2:48

    Drones can fire missiles while carrying no warhead.

  • 2:48

    Ukraine faces waves of cheap disposable drone attacks.

Map of the places in “Ukraine’s New FP-7 Ballistic Missile is Quickly Becoming Russia’s Worst Nightmare” 23:33

Ukraine’s New FP-7 Ballistic Missile is Quickly Becoming Russia’s Worst Nightmare

Paul J. Warburg

The introduction of FP-7 and future FP-9 ballistic missiles forces Russia to reallocate air defenses and burn through interceptors on cheap drones, creating a strategic advantage for Ukraine over the next one to two years. The combination of new missile capabilities and depleted Russian defenses will fundamentally alter the battlefield dynamics over the next one to two years.

5:47

The Future of Drone Tech: Naval Launch Platforms

Peter Zeihan

Naval drones are evolving into drone carriers that launch aerial units via tethers to bypass jamming and expand frontline reach. That is something we're probably going to see within a month or two.

34:09

Ukraine is About to Turn Russia Into Hell on Earth

Paul J. Warburg

Ukraine is humiliating Russia through unprecedented daily innovations in drone production, range, and robotics. The trajectory of Russia's decline has reached a point where it is no longer just a trajectory; we are actually seeing it in real time.

Map of the places in “Ground Drones Hit the Frontlines in Ukraine” 5:48

Ground Drones Hit the Frontlines in Ukraine

Peter Zeihan

The emergence of ground drones makes it very difficult for any sort of projection-based military to push force somewhere else. We're not going to figure that out in six months.

17:36

Russia's "Starlink Alternative" Just Got Neutralized

Paul J. Warburg

Ukraine holds a decisive structural advantage over Russia in space warfare because Russia cannot build its own network while under attack. Ukraine must continue to keep pressure on Russia to prevent them from fixing their weaknesses and breaking any future peace treaty.

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