The Fire Hose of Chaos: Don't Expect Many Trade Deals
Peter Zeihan
6 min
The United States isn't ready to have these talks because it is organizationally unprepared and operates with erratic policies. Real trade talks cannot begin until the erratic policy environment settles down.
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Donald Trump
Chapters
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0:00
Organizational Unpreparedness
The US lacks the staff and time to negotiate complex trade deals quickly.
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1:02
Severe Staffing Shortages
The administration has gutted departments and lacks capable negotiators.
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2:39
Erosion of Trust with Partners
Canada and Mexico face tariffs regardless of their approach, destroying trust. Europeans view the US as a security threat due to its stance on Ukraine. Japan feels betrayed after the US abrogated a deal negotiated under Trump.
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5:08
Erratic Policy Environment
Daily changes in tariff policies make meaningful negotiation impossible.
Key points
- 0:00
Building a general US position on trade talks usually takes six months of consultation.
- 0:00
The fastest US trade deal ever negotiated took eighteen months to complete.
- 0:00
Most trade deals take a decade because so many pieces are in motion.
- 0:00
Meaningful talks cannot begin for another five weeks according to Treasury Secretary.
- 1:02
The Trump administration gutted departments and staffed them only with loyalists.
- 1:02
Only four people in the US administration are capable of holding trade talks.
- 2:39
Canada and Mexico received tariffs regardless of whether they resisted or bent to demands.
- 2:39
Europeans see the US as a security threat due to its withdrawal of support for Ukraine.
- 2:39
Japan feels betrayed because the US abrogated a deal previously negotiated by Trump.
- 5:08
The goalposts for trade policy are changing on a daily basis.
Who and where
People · 1
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Donald Trump 4
President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)
Photo 1
1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)
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