I Hope You Didn't Want to Buy a Home

Peter Zeihan 4 min

Housing is just expensive and only going to get more so because we cannot build it fast enough. If you are trying to get going, this is awful.

  • Donald Trump

Key points

  • 0:27

    Deficit spending will increase by roughly $1 trillion U.S. a year.

  • 0:27

    Treasury bills will raise the cost of a mortgage because it is based on the 10-year treasury.

  • 0:47

    Two-thirds of American baby boomers have retired as of January of this year.

  • 0:47

    The liquidation of high-velocity investments by retirees quadruples capital costs across the economy.

  • 0:47

    Trump wants to send roughly 5 million migrant workers home.

  • 0:47

    Migrant workers are most likely to work in agriculture and construction.

  • 1:58

    Tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper, and wood increase home building input prices.

  • 1:58

    Insurance premiums are probably going up 20 to 30 percent just this year.

  • 2:43

    Boomers are far more likely to stay in their home and age in place.

  • 2:43

    The quantity of housing simply isn't there for millennials and Generation Z.

  • 2:43

    Components that go into homes are more expensive than they have ever been relative to average income.

Who and where

People · 1

  • Drawing of Donald Trump

    Donald Trump 3

    President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)

    Photo 1

1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)

6:02

The Fire Hose of Chaos: Housing Problems

Peter Zeihan

The housing sector is the American industry most damaged by mid- and long-term trends combining labor shortages, tariffs, financing cuts, and insurance collapse. The housing sector is looking to be the sector that is potentially most damaged by the mid- and long-term trends that are coming together.

10:03

The Fire Hose of Chaos: Finance

Peter Zeihan

The combination of retiring baby boomers and unpredictable US policies is causing a massive reduction in global capital supply, which drastically increases borrowing costs. These factors combine to slow economic growth across the entire American economic space.

4:09

The Death of the First-Time Home Buyer

Peter Zeihan

Negative population growth and capital scarcity will prevent housing prices from dropping significantly for first-time buyers this decade. Housing affordability will not improve significantly for the rest of this decade due to structural economic shifts.

4:30

Markets Drop After Fed Rate Cut

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The Fed faces a hardwired box where investment is difficult, consumption is expensive, and inflation is rising. The Fed is in a bit of a box because the White House is part of the problem and baby boomers are no longer part of the solution.

11:02

The Highs and Lows of Burgum's Energy Strategy

Peter Zeihan

The shift to fossil fuels is driven by economic necessity and a specific geopolitical strategy against Russia. The current foreign policy team lacks competence, making the pragmatic energy strategy even more critical despite its long timeline.

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