Should the US Stay in the Middle East?
Peter Zeihan
5 min
The primary reason for US involvement was to maintain an alliance against the Soviet Union, not just oil. Every time we do truly nationalist and really do ostrich down, something happens in the Eastern Hemisphere that draws us back in in a very ugly way that costs us hundreds of thousands of lives.
-
Joe Biden
-
Donald Trump
Chapters
-
0:00
Historical Context and Strategic Alliance
The US was an oil exporter until 1973, then an importer from roughly 1973 until roughly 2013.
-
0:20
Limited Reliance on Middle Eastern Crude
The US rarely sourced more than 10 or 20% of its crude daily from the Middle East. The primary reason for involvement was to maintain an alliance against the Soviet Union, not just oil.
-
2:33
Globalization Deal for Security
Post-WWII globalization created a security deal where allies needed US protection to access Middle Eastern crude. The US must lead a conversation with allies on what the next chapter of this arrangement looks like. Choosing nationalism and ostriching oneself leads to ugly events in the Eastern Hemisphere costing hundreds of thousands of lives.
-
4:46
Leverage Against China
Controlling the region allows the US to shut off China's oil supply instantly.
Key points
- 0:20
The United States was an oil exporter until 1973.
- 0:20
The US imported oil from roughly 1973 until roughly 2013.
- 0:20
The US rarely sourced more than 10 or 20% of its crude daily from the Middle East.
- 0:20
The reason for involvement was the strategic alliance built to contain and beat back the Soviet Union.
- 0:20
Allies needed US protection to hold on to the alliance against the Soviet Union.
- 2:33
Lack of oil leads to deindustrialization and a catastrophic drop in economic activity.
- 2:33
The US must lead a conversation with allies on the next chapter of the security deal.
- 2:33
Choosing nationalism leads to ugly events in the Eastern Hemisphere costing hundreds of thousands of lives.
- 4:46
Controlling the region allows the US to shut off China's oil supply in a day.
Who and where
People · 2
-
Joe Biden 1
46th President of the United States (2021–2025)
Photo 1
-
Donald Trump 1
President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)
Photo 2
1. Photo: Adam Schultz, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Joe Biden)
2. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)
Related episodes
What's Up with the Middle East: Saudi Oil Slips
Peter Zeihan
Saudi Arabia must resort to terror attacks to drive rivals offline because the US no longer needs its oil. Saudi Arabia will face significant policy change as it becomes apparent to them that the American relationship is over.
The Highs and Lows of Burgum's Energy Strategy
Peter Zeihan
The shift to fossil fuels is driven by economic necessity and a specific geopolitical strategy against Russia. The current foreign policy team lacks competence, making the pragmatic energy strategy even more critical despite its long timeline.
Winners and Losers of the Iran War: Ukraine and Russia
Peter Zeihan
The region used to export 22 million barrels of crude a day. It is now down to probably something between 10 and 12.
Why is America Intentionally Destroying its Global Influence?
Paul J. Warburg
America is intentionally destroying its global influence by refusing to pay the costs of protection and trade. The US must change its narrative and embrace strategies that uphold global trust to avoid self-destruction.
7:56
How To Ban Diesel Exports
Peter Zeihan
Export bans without infrastructure changes create oversaturation that reduces domestic energy security. The conversation is misplaced until distribution systems are fixed alongside any bans.
AI-generated summary · model qwen3.5:9b-12k · prompt version whole-3.window-7.combine-10.s-f4be8e ·
video id V3g6Dj8n6cY ·
Watch on YouTube