The U.S. Can't Break the (Arctic) Ice

Peter Zeihan 3 min

The United States has lost its ability to project military power in the Arctic due to fleet collapse and failed international partnerships. This strategic void will resonate throughout the remainder of the century as the world churns.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Collapse of the US Icebreaker Fleet

    The US icebreaker fleet has collapsed due to mechanical failures and aging vessels, leaving no operational ships available for Arctic operations. Agreements with Canada and Finland to build icebreakers are unlikely to succeed due to geopolitical tensions and lack of US shipyard capacity.

  2. 2:09

    The Long-Term Strategic Void

    The United States will lack a military presence on Arctic waters for at least the next 30 years, limiting its ability to compete globally.

Key points

  • 0:00

    The Healy icebreaker suffered engine failure and fire, stalling operations for at least the remainder of this year.

  • 0:00

    The Polar Star is over 50 years old and has begun its own refit after supplying Antarctica.

  • 0:00

    The Storis is the only remaining US icebreaker, but it is a civilian oil tug converted for this purpose.

  • 0:00

    The US lacks a domestic shipyard capable of building new icebreakers to replace the lost fleet.

  • 0:00

    Canada will not assist in building an icebreaker fleet that could circumvent its own power in the Arctic.

  • 2:09

    Threatening Denmark over Greenland risks losing the entire Scandinavian bloc as a tight ally of Finland.

  • 2:09

    The US will be unable to play in the Arctic during winter months for at least the next 30 years.

  • 2:09

    Air power is of limited use on the water compared to naval presence.

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