Leaving the World Behind: Obama vs. Trump

Peter Zeihan 8 min

The Trump administration's deal represents a strategic abdication on financial and nuclear issues. We are now in a grade below D statecraft situation.

  • Donald Trump
  • Barack Obama

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Review of the JCPOA

    The JCPOA is held up as a landmark example of failed negotiation. The deal lacked sufficient safeguards and ignored key U.S. interests.

  2. 1:20

    Comparison with Trump Deal

    Neither the JCPOA nor the Trump administration addressed sectarian groups Iran sponsors. The United States controls the global financial system, and almost all commodities are almost exclusively settled in U.S. dollars.

  3. 3:03

    Nuclear Program Incentives

    The Trump deal incentivized Iran to build a nuke.

  4. 5:24

    Strategic Abdication

    The Trump administration's actions represent a strategic abdication on financial and nuclear issues. There is no one in the region that checks those boxes for the United States. A regional balance of power must self-regulate so that the region's problems stay the region's problems. The Trump deal leads to regional problems like the war in Lebanon and human rights disasters. The Obama deal is a grade D statecraft, but the current situation is worse.

Key points

  • 0:00

    The JCPOA is held up as the landmark example of how to not negotiate with a difficult country like Iran.

  • 0:00

    There were insufficient safeguards in the JCPOA.

  • 0:00

    Most of the issues that really mattered to the United States were not addressed in the JCPOA.

  • 1:20

    Neither the JCPOA nor the Trump administration addressed sectarian groups Iran sponsors.

  • 1:20

    The United States controls the global financial system, and almost all commodities are almost exclusively settled in U.S. dollars.

  • 3:03

    The Trump deal gave Iran full access to the U.S. financial system.

  • 3:03

    The Trump deal incentivized Iran to build a nuke.

  • 5:24

    The Trump administration's deal represents a strategic abdication on financial and nuclear issues.

  • 5:24

    There is no one in the region that checks those boxes for the United States.

  • 5:24

    The Trump deal leads to regional problems like the war in Lebanon and human rights disasters.

Who and where

People · 2

  • Drawing of Barack Obama

    Barack Obama 9

    44th President of the United States (2009–2017)

    Photo 1

  • Drawing of Donald Trump

    Donald Trump 3

    President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)

    Photo 2

1. Photo: Official White House Photo by Pete Souza, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Barack Obama)

2. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)

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