Why Bypassing Hormuz is a Pipe Dream

Peter Zeihan 8 min

Bypassing the Strait of Hormuz via pipelines is a pipe dream because all proposed routes are vulnerable to Iranian strikes except the Turkish route, which is too small and expensive to solve the problem. The Trump administration believes this is a quick and easy fix, but it is not.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Strait of Hormuz as a Critical Bottleneck

    Explains why the Strait of Hormuz is essential for global oil exports and lists the geographical impossibilities of alternative routes. Details the four specific pipeline projects being discussed: Fujairah, Petroline, Iraq-Syria, and Kirkuk-Chaihan. Describes the UAE's expansion plans but notes its vulnerability to modern long-range strikes.

  2. 2:17

    The Petroline and Saudi Refinery Strategy

    Highlights the operational capacity of the Petroline while exposing the flaw in relying on disconnected Red Sea refineries.

  3. 2:37

    The Financial and Political Risks of the Iraq Route

    Outlines the massive cost and sectarian instability preventing the revival of the western pipeline through Syria.

  4. 5:16

    The Vulnerability of All Pipelines to Iranian Strikes

    Argues that modern weapon systems can destroy all proposed infrastructure within the 500-mile strike range. Identifies the Kirkuk-Chaihan pipeline as the sole option immune to Iranian attacks due to Turkey's military power.

  5. 7:49

    The Conclusion: Bypassing Hormuz is Impossible

    Concludes that despite political talk, none of the proposed pipelines offer a functional solution to bypass the Strait.

Key points

  • 0:00

    The Persian Gulf produces roughly 20 to 22 million barrels per day of oil and oil products.

  • 0:00

    Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar lack viable alternative land routes due to geography or sectarian issues.

  • 0:00

    The Fujairah pipeline in the UAE currently carries about 1.6 million barrels per day.

  • 2:17

    Saudi Arabia can ramp up the Petroline capacity to seven million barrels within 30 to 45 days' notice.

  • 2:37

    The western pipeline for Iraq requires replacing all equipment and costs conservatively $8 billion.

  • 4:23

    The proposed route through Syria passes through zones controlled by different sectarian groups in a civil war zone.

  • 5:16

    Modern weapon systems can strike industrial targets up to 500 miles away without problem.

  • 5:16

    Iran has already struck the Fujairah and Yanbu facilities using these long-range capabilities.

  • 5:16

    The Kirkuk-Chaihan pipeline is the only route immune to Iranian strikes because Turkey possesses a superior local military power.

  • 7:29

    Doubling or tripling the capacity of the Turkish pipeline would require tens of billions of dollars due to difficult terrain.

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