The U.S. Chooses Favorites: North Korea over South Korea
Peter Zeihan
6 min
The United States is abandoning South Korea, forcing it to develop nuclear weapons and triggering a regional arms race. The strategic balance of peace in Northeast Asia is ending because South Korea will likely build a nuclear weapon.
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Donald Trump
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Kim Jong-un
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Joe Biden
Chapters
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0:00
Trump Ends U.S.-South Korea Military Exercises
Donald Trump has functionally ended the annual U.S.-South Korea military exercises, a move that North Korea had long demanded and which Trump publicly praised Kim Jong-un as a 'respectful leader' despite North Korea's nuclear threats. The United States relies heavily on South Korea for naval shipbuilding technology and high-end DRAM memory chips, both of which are now at risk due to the breakdown in relations. Beyond trade agreements, the United States needs South Korea for high-end computing memory chips that are essential for modern technology and defense systems.
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2:30
South Korea's Unique Military Posture and Vulnerability
South Korea has spent more than any other nation since 1950 but focuses solely on defensive weaponry, leaving it unable to project power or assist in distant conflicts like Iran.
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3:46
South Korea's Forced Pivot to Drones and Nuclear Weapons
Facing abandonment, South Korea is partnering with Ukraine for drone production and now possesses the capability to build a deliverable nuclear weapon within months. If South Korea develops a nuclear weapon, it will force Taiwan and Japan to follow suit, ending 75 years of relative peace in the region.
Key points
- 0:00
Trump has ended U.S. participation in annual military exercises designed to prepare for North Korean invasion.
- 0:00
North Korea is described as pointing nuclear weapons at the U.S. and being a major source of cybercrime.
- 0:00
The U.S. Navy relied on Korean technicians and modules to jumpstart new shipbuilding efforts.
- 0:00
Korean manufacturers produce almost all high-end DRAM memory chips required for advanced computing.
- 2:30
South Korea has outspent every other nation on defense since 1950 while focusing only on defensive weaponry.
- 2:30
South Korea currently has zero ships capable of reaching the Strait of Hormuz for potential conflict in Iran.
- 3:46
South Korea is partnering with Ukraine to mass-produce advanced attack and defensive drones.
- 3:46
South Korea now has the capability to build a deliverable nuclear weapon within months.
- 3:46
A South Korean nuclear weapon would force Taiwan and Japan to follow suit, ending regional peace.
- 3:46
The Trump administration lacks a clear strategic goal for its policy toward North Korea.
On the map
Who and where
Places · 11
- North Korea 9
- South Korea 7
- United States 7
- Northeast Asia 2
- Japan 2
- Taiwan 2
- Ukraine 2
- Strait of Hormuz 1
- Europe 1
- Iran 1
- People's Republic of China 1
People · 3
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Donald Trump 1
President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)
Photo 1
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Kim Jong-un 1
Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011
Photo 2
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Joe Biden 1
46th President of the United States (2021–2025)
Photo 3
1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)
2. Photo: Владимир Смирнов / ТАСС, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Kim Jong-un)
3. Photo: Adam Schultz, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Joe Biden)
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