The Collapse of the World's Strategic Straits - Part 2

Peter Zeihan 9 min

The world is shifting from free international waterways to regulated choke points where local powers charge tolls and restrict global trade. This shift creates a new global order where nations near these straits hold immense leverage over energy and commerce.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The New Era of Waterway Regulation

    International law regarding naturally occurring waterways is changing as Iran may begin charging tolls, setting a precedent for other states to demand control and financial assets from strategic straits.

  2. 0:55

    The Vulnerability of the Bab el-Mandeb

    Following Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb becomes the next target due to weak local governance in Djibouti, Somalia, and Yemen, allowing Iran-backed groups like the Houthis to enforce tolls or attacks.

  3. 4:45

    The Strategic Shift at the Turkish Straits

    Turkey will immediately begin regulating the Bosporus and Dardanelles once Iran succeeds, leveraging its functional navy and army to interdict every ship passing through these waterways. Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Norway will unite to enforce tolls on the Danish Straits, severely limiting Russia's ability to export northern commerce to the Atlantic.

  4. 7:13

    The Global Rewiring of Commerce

    Global trade is being rewired as countries near these straits gain leverage while distant nations face trapped regional products with no good sourcing options.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Iran will likely charge tolls or fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz before the end of the year.

  • 0:00

    Once Hormuz becomes regulated, other states will follow suit to demand control of waterways and gain financial assets.

  • 0:55

    The Bab el-Mandeb is the first strait to fall into this new regulated pattern after Hormuz.

  • 0:55

    Weak governance in Djibouti, Somalia, and Yemen allows Iran-backed groups like the Houthis to enforce tolls or attacks.

  • 0:55

    France will likely join the multi-sided conflict over regulating the Bab el-Mandeb due to its changing international order.

  • 4:45

    Turkey will immediately begin regulating the Bosporus and Dardanelles once Iran succeeds in enforcing its will on the Persian Gulf.

  • 4:45

    The Turkish Straits connect the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, allowing Turkey to interdict every ship passing through.

  • 4:45

    Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Norway will unite to enforce tolls on the Danish Straits against Russian commerce.

  • 7:13

    Russia's access to the world as an exporting power becomes limited to just what it can get out through the Pacific.

  • 7:13

    Countries closer to these straits gain leverage to cut deals with powers holding control over global energy flows.

  • 7:13

    Global commerce is being rewired as products become trapped regionally rather than flowing globally.

On the map

Map of the places in “The Collapse of the World's Strategic Straits - Part 2”

Who and where

Places · 42

  • Turkey 7
  • Strait of Malacca 6
  • Strait of Hormuz 7
  • Iran 8
  • Danish straits 3
  • Bab-el-Mandeb 3
  • France 5
  • Indonesia 3
  • Malaysia 3
  • Singapore 3
  • Somalia 3
  • Sweden 3
  • Russia 5
  • Pacific Ocean 2
  • Sanaa 2
  • Arabian Peninsula 2
  • Djibouti 2
  • Finland 2
  • Indian Ocean 2
  • Red Sea 2
  • Northeast Asia 2
  • Yemen 2
  • Persian Gulf 2
  • Germany 2
  • Europe 2
  • Ukraine 2
  • Aegean Sea 1
  • Atlantic Ocean 1
  • Bosporus Strait 1
  • Dardanelles 1
  • Kiel Canal 1
  • Malay Peninsula 1
  • North Sea 1
  • Norway 1
  • Sea of Marmara 1
  • Suez Canal 1
  • Istanbul 1
  • Mediterranean Sea 1
  • Panama 1
  • Black Sea 1
  • Baltic Sea 1
  • Middle East 1

Organisations · 2

  • ASEAN 1
  • NATO 1

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