You Mess with the Don, You Get the Tariffs
Peter Zeihan
6 min
Secondary tariffs on crude oil buyers could force China out of the electronics supply chain. We are definitely moving into a deglobalized world and need different tools than we have used for eighty years.
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Donald Trump
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Vladimir Putin
Chapters
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0:00
Trump's Anger and Negotiating Style
The speaker explains that Trump is angry because Russia refuses a ceasefire, noting his team lacks competence to relay bad news.
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2:07
Russia's Unwavering War Goals
The speaker states that Russia will not stop fighting until it secures Ukraine and several other nations as territory. The speaker describes a new tool where anyone buying Russian crude faces heavy tariffs on all goods entering the United States. The speaker warns that China could face over 100% tariffs because it supplies the technical equipment Russia needs for the war.
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5:24
Long-Term Manufacturing Disruption
The speaker claims that rebuilding electronics manufacturing outside China will take at least seven years even with North American help. The speaker predicts a grand scale impact on inflation as the world moves into a deglobalized state with new trade tools.
Key points
- 0:24
Donald Trump is angry because Russia refuses a ceasefire.
- 2:07
Russia will not stop fighting until it secures Ukraine and several other nations as territory.
- 2:07
Anyone buying Russian crude faces a 25 to 50 percent tariff on all goods entering the United States.
- 2:07
China could face over 100% tariffs because it supplies the technical equipment Russia needs for the war.
- 5:24
Rebuilding electronics manufacturing outside China will take at least seven years even with North American help.
- 5:24
The world is moving into a deglobalized state requiring new trade tools.
- 5:24
Secondary tariffs are a potentially effective tool for stopping Russian crude exports.
- 0:24
Trump's team lacks competence to relay bad news about the negotiations.
Who and where
People · 2
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Donald Trump 11
President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)
Photo 1
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Vladimir Putin 1
President of the Russian Federation
Photo 2
1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)
2. Photo: Пресс-служба Президента России, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Vladimir Putin)
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