The Death of US-China Trade

Chapters

1. 0:00

   The Escalation of US-China Trade War

   Tariffs have reached 104% on China, with secondary sanctions likely bringing it to 129%. China retaliated by raising tariffs from 34% to 84%, ending the largest bilateral economic relationship in human history. Decoupling causes massive inflation because there isn't enough industrial base elsewhere. China processes primary raw materials, and replacing them doubles costs, leading to at least 10% inflation. Increased costs for basic life functions push the lower third of the population beyond affordability, triggering a recession and potential social breakdown. China lost its largest customer, capital source, technology provider, and military security guarantor. The US military is now tasked with economic issues, disrupting shipping. Disruption of shipping leads not just to recession but potentially to military conflict and the disassociation of the Chinese system. Two cults of personality ignore advisors, creating a battle of egos where no one can mediate or talk either side down.

2. 2:32

   Inevitable Economic Collapse

   The situation will continue until something breaks, specifically the current economic expansion in the United States and the Chinese system as a whole.

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