Turkey Takes a Break from Democracy
Peter Zeihan
5 min
Turkey is no longer a democracy. Erwan has destroyed that system over the last 25 years.
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Donald Trump
Chapters
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0:00
The End of Turkish Democracy
President Erdoğan has consolidated absolute power over the last 25 years, effectively ending democracy in Turkey.
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1:03
Failed Protests and Military Control
Mass protests in Istanbul are unlikely to succeed because Erdoğan controls the military and security services.
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1:28
Historical Political Unification
Turkey is now politically unified under one roof for the first time since the Ottoman Empire era.
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2:50
US Withdrawal and European Complicity
The US no longer prioritizes democracy, while Europe tolerates Erdoğan's autocracy for strategic security reasons. Europe tolerates the regime because Turkey controls critical military assets and trade routes essential for them. Europe agrees to ignore democratic degradation because Turkey blocks Russian expansion and supplies weapons to Ukraine. Erdoğan will likely get a pass from Europe, meaning the current protests are almost certainly going to fail.
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5:09
Future of Democracy
Any future democracy in Turkey must be forged by a completely different generation, not the current one.
Key points
- 0:00
Turkey is no longer a democracy. Erwan has destroyed that system over the last 25 years.
- 1:03
It's probably not going to lead to much because Erwan controls the entire military, the security services.
- 1:28
Turkey is politically unified now in a way that it just hasn't been since the time of the Ottoman Empire.
- 2:50
Under Trump, democracy is not a priority, and so there's really no pressure as long as we get a few basic things from Turkey.
- 2:50
They have the largest military in NATO outside of the United States, certainly the largest army.
- 2:50
So we're looking at the Europeans and the Turks starting to agree on more things at a time when the Americans are pulling back.
- 2:50
So Erwan is likely to get a pass here. The protests are almost certainly going to fail.
- 5:09
And if there is going to be democracy in Turkey, it will have to be something that is forged by a different generation.
Who and where
People · 1
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Donald Trump 2
President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)
Photo 1
1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)
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