Is Russia Really Preparing to Attack NATO?

Paul J. Warburg 34 min

Russia is unlikely to attack NATO because doing so would open a massive new front while they are already failing in Ukraine. While we should prepare in case we're wrong, we should not fear a Russian attack because it's unlikely to happen.

  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy
  • Vladimir Putin

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Recent Arson and NATO Threats

    Russia allegedly recruited Latvian arsonists to burn an Estonian defense firm, while intelligence agencies warn of potential attacks on NATO countries.

  2. 8:34

    Historical Patterns of Fear

    Russia repeatedly uses base construction near borders and airspace incursions to generate fear without actually attacking NATO.

  3. 20:01

    Strategic Illogic of an Attack

    Attacking NATO would open a massive new front for Russia while they are already failing to make progress in Ukraine.

  4. 22:27

    NATO's Resilience and Response

    Even if NATO did not respond collectively, individual member states like Finland and Sweden would likely act to defend themselves.

  5. 26:08

    Intelligence Warnings vs. Reality

    Intelligence agencies warn of possibilities to ensure public safety, but these warnings often exaggerate likelihoods compared to historical outcomes.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Latvian arsonists recruited by Russian security services burned an Estonian defense firm last month.

  • 8:34

    Russia has repeatedly used base construction near borders to generate fear without launching actual invasions.

  • 13:16

    Russian drones penetrated NATO airspace recently, causing headlines about imminent attacks that never materialized.

  • 20:01

    Russia is currently struggling to make progress in Ukraine and expects to mobilize hundreds of thousands more men.

  • 20:01

    An attack on NATO would risk opening a massive new front for Russia while they are already losing.

  • 22:27

    Even if NATO did not respond collectively, individual member states like Finland and Sweden would likely act.

  • 26:08

    Intelligence agencies warn of possibilities to ensure public safety, but these warnings often exaggerate likelihoods compared to historical outcomes.

  • 27:59

    Russia knows intelligence agencies must warn of possibilities, so they orchestrate events to make it look like they are planning attacks.

  • 30:51

    Russia has invaded Ukraine when it was their only war, but they have no reason to doubt they would win that conflict.

  • 30:51

    Russia has launched numerous supposed threats of invasions over the years, but none have actually materialized.

  • 32:21

    If Russia attacks NATO, it will likely lose because the risk outweighs any potential gain.

On the map

Map of the places in “Is Russia Really Preparing to Attack NATO?”

Who and where

Places · 17

  • Russia 113
  • Ukraine 28
  • Estonia 13
  • Europe 16
  • Finland 7
  • Latvia 4
  • Narva 3
  • Sweden 3
  • Baltic Sea 6
  • Germany 6
  • Baltic states 2
  • Lithuania 2
  • Poland 2
  • Gotland 1
  • Kaliningrad 1
  • United States 2
  • Belarus 1

People · 2

  • Drawing of Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy 1

    President of Ukraine since 2019

    Photo 1

  • Drawing of Vladimir Putin

    Vladimir Putin 1

    President of the Russian Federation

    Photo 2

1. Photo: Press Service of the President of Ukraine, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Volodymyr Zelenskyy)

2. Photo: Пресс-служба Президента России, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Vladimir Putin)

Organisations · 1

  • NATO 23

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