Ukraine’s New FP-7 Ballistic Missile is Quickly Becoming Russia’s Worst Nightmare

Paul J. Warburg 24 min

The introduction of FP-7 and future FP-9 ballistic missiles forces Russia to reallocate air defenses and burn through interceptors on cheap drones, creating a strategic advantage for Ukraine over the next one to two years. The combination of new missile capabilities and depleted Russian defenses will fundamentally alter the battlefield dynamics over the next one to two years.

  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Russia's Panic Over New Ukrainian Missiles

    Ukraine has successfully tested its new FP-7 ballistic missile, prompting increased production plans that threaten Russian air defenses and command structures. The speaker highlights the panic in Russia, evidenced by assassination attempts on Ukrainian missile developers and a $20 million bounty for their capture.

  2. 2:53

    Strategic Advantages of FP-7 Missiles

    The FP-7 missile offers a range of 250 to 300 kilometers, allowing strikes on Belgorod and Rostov-on-Don. It carries a payload of approximately 150 kilograms, which is two to three times heavier than standard drones, and flies fast enough to be harder to intercept.

  3. 8:04

    Disrupting Russian Logistics and Command

    Repeated strikes on forward bases in Belgorod and Rostov-on-Don will disrupt Russian logistics and troop accumulation. Disrupting these command centers creates a headless situation for the Russian military due to a lack of junior officers.

  4. 14:31

    Forcing Russia to Reallocate Air Defenses

    The mere existence of FP-7 missiles forces Russia to divert air defense systems from Moscow to protect Belgorod and Rostov-on-Don. This reallocation makes Ukrainian strikes against Moscow more effective by thinning out defenses in the capital.

  5. 16:40

    The Future of FP-9 Missiles

    Ukraine is developing the FP-9 missile with a range of approximately 850 kilometers and a payload of around 800 kilograms. This future weapon will be capable of reaching Moscow directly from Ukrainian-held territory.

  6. 19:14

    Cost-Effective Drone Strategy

    Ukraine currently uses cheap drones to strike Russian cities while Russia spends expensive interceptors. Ukraine intercepts Shahed drones for roughly $2,000, saving money compared to the $50,000 cost of the drone itself.

  7. 21:35

    Depleting Russian Interceptor Stockpiles

    By forcing Russia to burn through its limited interceptor stockpiles on cheap drones, Ukraine preserves its own missiles for later use. Once Russian interceptors wane, Ukrainian ballistic missiles will become significantly more effective.

  8. 22:06

    Long-Term Strategic Shift

    Major changes in the war are expected over the next one to two years rather than the immediate future. The combination of new missile capabilities and depleted Russian defenses will fundamentally alter the battlefield dynamics.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Ukraine has announced plans for wide-scale production of its new FP-7 ballistic missile.

  • 0:00

    Russia is responding with panic, including assassination attempts on Ukrainian missile developers.

  • 0:00

    Russia has placed a $20 million bounty for information on the whereabouts of Magyar.

  • 2:53

    The FP-7 missile has a range between 250 and 300 kilometers.

  • 2:53

    The FP-7 carries a payload of approximately 150 kilograms, twice that of standard drones.

  • 2:53

    The FP-7 flies fast enough to be much harder for Russian defenses to intercept.

  • 8:04

    Strikes on Belgorod and Rostov-on-Don will disrupt Russian logistics and troop accumulation.

  • 13:00

    Disrupting forward command centers creates a headless situation for the Russian military.

  • 14:31

    The existence of FP-7 missiles forces Russia to move air defenses away from Moscow.

  • 16:40

    Ukraine is developing the FP-9 missile with a range of approximately 850 kilometers.

  • 19:14

    Ukraine uses cheap drones to force Russia to burn through its expensive interceptor stockpiles.

  • 21:35

    Once Russian interceptors wane, Ukrainian ballistic missiles will become significantly more effective.

On the map

Map of the places in “Ukraine’s New FP-7 Ballistic Missile is Quickly Becoming Russia’s Worst Nightmare”

Who and where

Places · 6

  • Russia 64
  • Ukraine 54
  • Belgorod 5
  • Moscow 7
  • Rostov-on-Don 5
  • Kharkiv 1

People · 1

  • Drawing of Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy 1

    President of Ukraine since 2019

    Photo 1

1. Photo: Press Service of the President of Ukraine, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Volodymyr Zelenskyy)

Map of the places in “Ukraine Just Absolutely HAMMERED Moscow…Again!” 18:54

Ukraine Just Absolutely HAMMERED Moscow…Again!

Paul J. Warburg

Ukraine is winning the war of attrition by using cheap, scalable drone swarms to overwhelm Russia's defenses, while Russia is forced into an unsustainable cycle of expensive missiles and depleted air defense systems. As Russia runs out of air defenses and concentrates them in Moscow, Ukraine will soon be able to strike targets across the Russian Arctic, Siberia, and Far East.

31:34

What Everyone Is Getting Wrong About Russia’s Ballistic Missile Surge

Paul J. Warburg

Headlines exaggerate Ukraine's vulnerability by ignoring the scale of the crisis and failing to put it in context, leading viewers to incorrect conclusions about an existential threat. Russia is playing a desperate short-term game that creates long-term vulnerabilities, whereas Ukraine holds the superior strategic position for the long haul.

Map of the places in “Ukraine Just Sparked a Panic in the Russian Arctic” 18:11

Ukraine Just Sparked a Panic in the Russian Arctic

Paul J. Warburg

Russia's strategy of using its massive size as a defensive advantage is now obsolete. Ukraine is unlocking the entire country, and that hunting season won't end until Russia ends its war.

29:37

Russia Just Got Some TERRIBLE News

Paul J. Warburg

There is a mathematical upper limit to the damage Russia can cause, which is insufficient to force Ukraine to capitulate. Ukraine is nowhere close to losing this war, and every country that has fought for its independence has found the cost worth it.

Map of the places in “Ukraine Had an INCREDIBLE Night” 21:13

Ukraine Had an INCREDIBLE Night

Paul J. Warburg

Ukraine has demonstrated it can independently stop Russian attacks and defy US political pressure regarding energy prices. Ukraine is willing to defy the United States and prove that Trump lacks control over energy prices just before the midterms.

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