Russia’s Front Lines Have Never Looked Worse
Paul J. Warburg
19 min
The situation on the front lines of the war in Ukraine has never looked worse for Russia. This is a trend that is going in a very clear direction.
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Vladimir Putin
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Chapters
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0:00
Russia's Battlefield Decline
The situation on the front lines of the war in Ukraine has never looked worse for Russia, and I know we hear that all the time, but that's because things just keep managing to go downhill. Vladimir Putin himself has indicated some very interesting things with his own actions. This past Saturday, ironically, in a Victory Day speech, Putin admitted that the war in Ukraine would soon come to a conclusion.
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5:08
The Starlink Turning Point
And when we understand that what's happening today owes itself largely to what happened a couple of months ago, we realize that what we're currently seeing aren't just temporary trends, but most likely they are durable changes in the nature of the war itself.
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7:55
Loss of Safe Zones
What takes place just beyond the front line is where Russians prepare all of their equipment and their men to actually go to the front and do the fighting. And there's arguably an even bigger effect that is unquantifiable, which is the psychological effect both on the Russian military and also on the Russian civilians.
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14:06
Economic Exhaustion
In terms of the Russian economy, they've obviously not been doing so well. Russia, a long time ago, ran out of their savings account that they needed to support the war.
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16:45
Unwinnable Conflict
This is a trend that is going in a very clear direction. It doesn't mean it's going to end tomorrow, but it means the trend has now reached a point where it looks pretty much unwinnable for Russia.
Key points
- 0:00
Russia is having its worst battlefield performance since 2023 despite heavy investment.
- 0:00
Ukraine has taken more land than Russia in April while Russia was on the offensive.
- 0:00
Russian casualties remain at one of the highest rates of the entire war.
- 0:00
Average daily gains for Russia have dropped to 2.9 square kilometers per day.
- 0:00
Russia cannot achieve its objectives on the battlefield according to current stats.
- 0:00
Ukraine could roll back a significant percentage of Russia's current gains.
- 2:32
Russian leadership is working on a new propaganda campaign to claim victory.
- 5:08
Loss of Starlink access allowed Ukraine to fundamentally change the tide of the war.
- 5:08
Ukraine has quadrupled mid-range strikes against Russia since Starlink went offline.
- 7:55
There is now no safe zone left for Russian soldiers within occupied Ukrainian territory.
- 10:37
Russian soldiers have been robbed of moments of reprieve and recovery.
- 14:06
Russia has effectively run out of its gold stockpile to support the economy.
Who and where
People · 2
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Vladimir Putin 7
President of the Russian Federation
Photo 1
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy 1
President of Ukraine since 2019
Photo 2
1. Photo: Пресс-служба Президента России, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Vladimir Putin)
2. Photo: Press Service of the President of Ukraine, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Volodymyr Zelenskyy)
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