The Situation in Crimea is INSANE Right Now

Paul J. Warburg 20 min

Ukraine has systematically cut off Crimea's air defenses, supply routes, and storage facilities, putting the peninsula in its weakest position since the war began. Ukraine has potentially decided they have done enough attrition to the Russian military and can now start setting up the next phase of the strategy, which isn't just grinding down the Russian equipment, but it's actually making some steps to start pushing forward.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Siege of Crimea

    Ukraine has systematically cut off Crimea's air defenses, supply routes, and storage facilities, putting the peninsula in its weakest position since the war began.

  2. 3:30

    Geographic Vulnerability

    Crimea's narrow land connections allow Ukraine to effectively siege the peninsula by attacking limited roads, preventing Russian supplies from entering.

  3. 5:32

    Drone Capabilities

    Ukraine now uses inexpensive drones with Starlink terminals to strike deep into Russian rear areas, cutting off logistics that previously protected Crimea.

  4. 8:25

    Air Defense Destruction

    Ukraine has destroyed over 100 air defense systems on Crimea since the start of 2026, grinding down Russia's ability to protect the peninsula.

  5. 11:03

    Oil Terminal Strike

    Ukraine destroyed 23 out of 29 storage tanks at Crimea's largest oil terminal in early April, ending its ability to sustain a siege. After repairing three ferries used to supply Crimea, Ukraine struck them again in March and April, forcing reliance on the damaged Kerch Strait Bridge.

  6. 13:28

    Potential Full Siege

    With air defenses down, oil stores depleted, and supply routes cut, Ukraine can now potentially fully siege Crimea for the first time.

  7. 15:31

    Ground Robotics Strategy

    Ukraine can use ground robotics to capture infantry positions without human casualties, allowing it to wear down defenses over time.

  8. 16:56

    Strategic Shift

    Ukraine has likely decided it has inflicted enough attrition on Russia and is now shifting from grinding down equipment to pushing forward.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Crimea is quickly becoming once again one of the most interesting theaters of the entire war in Ukraine.

  • 0:58

    Crimea has reached a point where all of these different systems are offline all at the same time.

  • 3:30

    Those don't only prevent Ukrainian soldiers from coming in if the Russian military is opposing them, but they also prevent Russian supplies from coming in if the Ukrainian military is opposing those supplies.

  • 5:32

    Essentially all of Russian-occupied Ukraine is now a target.

  • 8:25

    Ukraine has been ramping up their strikes on Crimea's air defenses. They've taken out something like over 100 different air defense systems on Crimea since the start of 2026.

  • 11:03

    Ukraine struck the largest oil terminal in Crimea, destroying, I believe it was 23 out of 29 of the storage tanks at the facility.

  • 11:03

    Ukraine struck the final ferry that is servicing Crimea from mainland Russia.

  • 13:28

    What we're seeing then right now is a setup of conditions that could allow for a full siege of Crimea for the very first time.

  • 15:31

    Ukraine has demonstrated now that they can use robots, not humans, to capture Russian infantry positions without any human casualties.

  • 16:56

    It seems that they have potentially decided they have done enough attrition to the Russian military. And they can start now setting up the next phase of the strategy, which isn't just grinding down the Russian equipment, but it's actually making some steps to start pushing forward.

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