This Ain't Your Father's Tanker War

Peter Zeihan 7 min

The U.S. Navy no longer has the ability to impose a strategic reality on the local basis against a fourth-rate security power. It is very, very difficult to restore access to waterways during future conflicts.

  • Donald Trump

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The 1980s Tanker War

    The last time around in the tanker war the United States was a latecomer. Well three big differences.

  2. 1:25

    Direct Conflict and Naval Limitations

    This time it's a direct conflict between the United States and Iran.

  3. 3:35

    Modern Drone Warfare

    Today's drones might need GPS targeting, but we now have a series of things called super Shaheds, which don't.

  4. 5:20

    Economic Pressure on Tehran

    But for the first time in the conflict, we are now seeing economic pressure on the elements of the regime that are making the security decisions. This is a big change in how the world works.

Key points

  • 0:00

    The last time around in the tanker war the United States was a latecomer.

  • 1:25

    This time it's a direct conflict between the United States and Iran.

  • 1:25

    Back then the United States had a 500 plus ship Navy. Today we're under 300.

  • 1:25

    The Coast Guard has been steadily whittled down over the course of the last 40 years.

  • 3:35

    Today's drones might need GPS targeting, but we now have a series of things called super Shaheds, which don't.

  • 3:35

    The United States can't just sail in and break it open.

  • 3:35

    There's 2,000 ships trapped in the Gulf right now.

  • 5:20

    The biggest takeaway is that the United States is the world's most powerful Navy with the best projection power in human history.

  • 5:20

    It is very, very, very easy to deny civilian access now.

  • 6:09

    You can play this specific scenario out on almost any place in the Eastern Hemisphere.

Who and where

People · 1

  • Drawing of Donald Trump

    Donald Trump 1

    President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)

    Photo 1

1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)

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