So You Want to Break Iran...

Peter Zeihan 3 min

Forcing Iran to accept a deal requires taking away their transport options rather than attacking oil production. Targeting the shadow fleet in the Indian Ocean is the most effective way to force Iran to the table.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Tanker Strategy

    Iran loses access to export routes due to blockades and must use floating storage.

  2. 0:20

    The Logistics of the Blockade

    Large Iranian tankers cannot pass through the Strait of Malacca when fully loaded. Iranian tankers will park in the Indian Ocean and cannot return to export oil.

  3. 2:32

    The Economic Leverage

    Seizing transport options forces Iran to accept a deal better than attacking production.

Key points

  • 0:20

    The double blockade prevents Iranian crude oil from reaching global markets.

  • 0:20

    Iran exports roughly 2 million barrels daily via shadow tankers violating sanctions.

  • 0:20

    Blocked tankers are being stored as floating reserves near Karg Island.

  • 0:20

    Very large crude carriers cannot navigate the Strait of Malacca when fully loaded.

  • 0:20

    The round trip from Karg Island to Northeast Asia takes about 30 days.

  • 0:20

    The last of these tankers returns to port next week.

  • 0:20

    A parking lot in the Indian Ocean will soon hold all available Iranian tankers.

  • 0:20

    These tankers are government-owned and cannot be used for sanctioned exports.

  • 2:32

    Seizing the fleet forces Iran to accept a deal without damaging its production.

  • 2:32

    Removing transport options leaves Iran with no alternative but to negotiate.

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