Ukraine’s New Strategy is QUICKLY Breaking Russia
Paul J. Warburg
24 min
A new multi-layered strategy combining Ukrainian attacks and NATO enforcement is rapidly breaking Russia's energy revenue. Russia is in a massive dilemma with no effective response, as its net position is worse than before the war in Iran.
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Donald Trump
Chapters
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0:00
The Multi-Layered Strategy
Russia faces simultaneous pressure from Ukraine's attacks, NATO enforcement, and new international cooperation.
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3:14
Net Revenue Decline
Despite rising oil prices, Russia's net energy revenue is significantly lower than before the war in Iran.
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9:39
Escalating Attacks on Ports
Ukraine has shifted from sporadic attacks to repeated strikes that keep Russian oil and gas terminals offline.
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12:02
Shift in Ukrainian Politics
Ukraine no longer prioritizes managing political relationships by avoiding attacks on Russian energy capacity.
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14:26
NATO Enforcement of Sanctions
France and the UK are willing to physically stop sanctioned Russian tankers in their coastal waters.
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16:45
Forcing Longer Routes
Blocking the English Channel forces Russian tankers to take longer routes around Scotland, reducing effective capacity.
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18:55
Closing the Baltic Chokepoint
Baltic states like Poland and Sweden could shut down the exit from the Baltic Sea entirely.
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20:00
Ukrainian Drones in the Black Sea
Ukraine uses naval drones to take full Russian tankers offline without sinking them, creating a second layer of defense.
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22:01
Kinetic Sanctions Replace Legal Ones
Physical attacks on energy infrastructure are more effective than sanctions alone. Russia cannot effectively respond to all simultaneous attacks on its energy export capacity.
Key points
- 0:00
Russia faces a perfect storm of simultaneous problems across multiple areas.
- 2:22
Simultaneous attacks reduce Russia's ability to respond appropriately to individual problems.
- 9:39
Ukraine is conducting repeated attacks on ports to keep them offline for prolonged periods.
- 12:02
Ukraine no longer prioritizes political relationships by avoiding attacks on Russian energy.
- 14:26
France and the UK are willing to stop sanctioned tankers in their coastal waters.
- 16:45
Forcing longer routes reduces effective capacity by 10 to 20%.
- 18:55
Baltic states could shut down the choke point leading out of the Baltic Sea.
- 20:00
Ukraine uses naval drones to take full tankers offline without sinking them.
- 22:01
Physical attacks on infrastructure are more effective than sanctions alone.
- 22:01
Russia cannot effectively respond to all the layers of attacks simultaneously.
Who and where
People · 1
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Donald Trump 1
President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)
Photo 1
1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)
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