As Fertilizer Falls, Famine Will Follow

Peter Zeihan 5 min

Global food production will stall and crash because the rest of the world faces a chronic nitrogen deficit within fifty years. China must think significantly different about its security policy to manage direct access to the Persian Gulf.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Crisis in the Persian Gulf

    Missile and drone attacks are regularly penetrating defenses on the western side of the Persian Gulf, targeting strategic infrastructure like airports and energy facilities in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

  2. 0:35

    Global Fertilizer Supply Chains

    Three types of fertilizer exist: potash from Canada, Belarus, and Russia; phosphate from Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Peru, and Florida; and nitrogen-based fertilizers primarily derived from natural gas in Qatar. Qatar produces 10% of global liquefied natural gas and 11% of global urea production; with its facilities hit, the Persian Gulf now accounts for zero ammonia production despite previously supplying 30% to 35%. The United States will not face massive nitrogen shortages due to its own natural gas reserves, but the rest of the world faces a chronic nitrogen deficit starting within one to fifty years.

  3. 3:27

    Global Food Production Collapse

    Global food production will stall and crash because China imports all necessary inputs for fertilizer, while South Asia faces significant pressure unless it secures direct access to the Persian Gulf.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Missile and drone attacks are regularly punching through the defensive envelope on the western side of the Persian Gulf.

  • 0:35

    Potash fertilizer primarily comes from Canada, Belarus, and Russia.

  • 0:35

    Phosphate fertilizer is sourced from Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Peru, and Florida.

  • 1:20

    Nitrogen-based fertilizers are primarily derived from natural gas found in Qatar.

  • 1:20

    Qatar's facility produces 10% of global liquefied natural gas and 11% of global urea production.

  • 1:20

    All ammonia production from the Persian Gulf has now gone to zero.

  • 3:27

    The United States will not face massive nitrogen shortages in the short term.

  • 3:27

    The rest of the world will be in a chronic nitrogen deficit within fifty years.

  • 3:27

    Global food production will stall and crash due to these shortages.

  • 3:27

    China cannot maintain output because it imports all necessary inputs for fertilizer.

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