Ukraine Strikes Hit Baltic Export Facilities

Peter Zeihan 3 min

Infrastructure within about 600 miles of a hostile actor is now completely vulnerable to ongoing cheap drone attacks. We are also going to lose the crude that's coming out of the St.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Ukraine Strikes Baltic Oil Facilities

    Ukrainian drones attacked Primorsk and Ust Luga ports, shutting down exports for about 24 hours.

  2. 0:45

    Global Oil Sources at Risk

    Three major crude sources exist: the Persian Gulf, North America, and the former Soviet Union. Russia has three shipping routes: Black Sea, Far East, and the Baltic Sea. Infrastructure within 600 miles of a hostile actor is now vulnerable to cheap drone attacks. The Leningrad region is about 700 miles away, exceeding previous Ukrainian range limits. Ukraine generated enough drones to throw a volley of 60 at these two ports. The world will lose crude coming out of the St. Petersburg region in the not too distant future. Russia has a limited degree for the Russians to shift crude around, but really not all that much.

  3. 3:01

    Ongoing Attacks Expected

    The Ukrainians have demonstrated this is well within their capabilities, and we should see attack after attack after attack.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Combined Primorsk and Ust Luga facilities handle about 1.7 million barrels of crude a day of exports.

  • 0:45

    The Persian Gulf is offline and probably not coming back as a source of oil.

  • 0:45

    North America remains fine as a major source of crude for the global economy.

  • 0:45

    The former Soviet Union, most notably Russia, is the third major source of crude.

  • 0:45

    Infrastructure within about 600 miles of a hostile actor is now completely vulnerable to drone attacks.

  • 0:45

    The Leningrad region is about 700 miles away, exceeding the previous range limit for Ukrainian attacks.

  • 0:45

    Ukraine generated enough drones to throw a volley of 60 at these two ports.

  • 0:45

    The world will lose the crude coming out of the St. Petersburg region in the not too distant future.

  • 0:45

    Russia has a limited degree for the Russians to shift crude around, but really not all that much.

  • 3:01

    We should see attack after attack after attack in the days and weeks to come.

Related episodes

4:12

Say Goodbye to the Global Order

Peter Zeihan

Globalization is ending because naval blockades and attacks on transport infrastructure make global trade impossible. If you are dependent on global agriculture, energy, or manufacturing, you need to look at where you're getting your parts or your inputs.
5:27

Ukraine Targets the CPC in Recent Drone Strikes

Peter Zeihan

Combined attacks on Black Sea and Baltic routes approach the upper limit of removable global oil flow. Calendar year 2026 is predicted to start with a major energy disruption.
21:25

Ukraine FINALLY Hit Russia in the BEST Possible Place

Paul J. Warburg

Ukraine has reached a unique moment where it can strike Russian energy exports without losing critical political support. Ukraine has the least to lose politically while Russia has the most to gain, making major attacks on energy infrastructure inevitable.
7:17

Winners and Losers of the Iran War: Ukraine and Russia

Peter Zeihan

The region used to export 22 million barrels of crude a day. It is now down to probably something between 10 and 12.
6:06

Targeting Problems in Ukraine

Peter Zeihan

The United States is starting to point its finger at Ukraine about the targets it's supposed to attack in Russian territory. And if you want to talk about something that's going to hit Russia's bottom line, that's the way to do it.

AI-generated summary · model qwen3.5:9b-12k · prompt version whole-3.window-7.combine-10.s-f4be8e · video id 36FJ0NsVfn4 · Watch on YouTube