What You AREN’T Being Told About the War in Iran

Paul J. Warburg 28 min

The war in Iran consists of two distinct conflicts where the US wins the first but loses the second. The US will declare victory in the first war while ignoring the second, effectively losing it.

  • Donald Trump

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Shift in Trump's Stance

    Trump initially criticized allies for interfering, then blamed them for not helping enough.

  2. 5:56

    The Two-War Reality

    The conflict consists of two distinct wars: one the US wins, and one it likely loses. US forces excel at shock and awe, quickly disabling missiles, drones, and navy.

  3. 8:15

    Failure in Nation-Building

    The US historically fails at stabilizing regions after military victories, as seen in Iraq and Afghanistan.

  4. 15:22

    Geographic and Strategic Advantages

    Iran's size, mountains, and connection to Russia make it harder to occupy than Iraq or Afghanistan.

  5. 19:07

    Centralized Population

    Unlike divided Iraq or Afghanistan, Iran's 90 million people remain centralized under the regime.

  6. 20:08

    Increased Terror Threat

    Military action may radicalize populations, increasing sporadic terror attacks even if organized networks weaken.

  7. 22:52

    Strait of Hormuz Risks

    Iran will likely continue to disrupt shipping via drones despite US claims of eliminating stockpiles. The US will declare victory in the first war while ignoring the second, effectively losing it.

  8. 25:17

    Long-Term Consequences

    Unresolved issues will fester, potentially worsening the situation while China exploits US weakness.

  9. 26:22

    Media Complexity

    Most media reports only one side of the conflict rather than the full complex reality.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Trump initially criticized allies for interfering, then blamed them for not helping enough.

  • 5:56

    The conflict consists of two distinct wars: one the US wins, and one it likely loses.

  • 5:56

    US forces excel at shock and awe, quickly disabling missiles, drones, and navy.

  • 8:15

    The US historically fails at stabilizing regions after military victories, as seen in Iraq and Afghanistan.

  • 22:52

    Iran will likely continue to disrupt shipping via drones despite US claims of eliminating stockpiles.

  • 15:22

    Iran's size, mountains, and connection to Russia make it harder to occupy than Iraq or Afghanistan.

  • 19:07

    Unlike divided Iraq or Afghanistan, Iran's 90 million people remain centralized under the regime.

  • 20:08

    Military action may radicalize populations, increasing sporadic terror attacks even if organized networks weaken.

  • 22:52

    The US will declare victory in the first war while ignoring the second, effectively losing it.

  • 25:17

    Unresolved issues will fester, potentially worsening the situation while China exploits US weakness.

Who and where

People · 1

  • Drawing of Donald Trump

    Donald Trump 6

    President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)

    Photo 1

1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)

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