The Blockade of Iran Begins

Peter Zeihan 6 min

To pressure the IRGC effectively, the US must block oil exports and prevent drone imports. The blockade is the first action that successfully targets the IRGC's specific financial interests.

  • Donald Trump

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Blockade Begins

    The US has initiated a naval blockade of Iranian ports, preventing ships from docking or leaving.

  2. 0:41

    Targeting the IRGC

    The blockade targets the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, whose power relies on oil sales and smuggling.

  3. 1:36

    Strategic Impact

    Stopping exports reduces IRGC revenue to zero, unlike previous attacks that failed to hurt them.

  4. 2:45

    Missile and Drone Threats

    The IRGC controls missile fleets and drones capable of striking energy assets on the Arab side. Iran relies on Chinese parts for missiles and drones, which are now harder to import freely. A separate naval blockade is needed for the eastern port of Chabahar to prevent drone imports. Northern and eastern borders cannot be blockaded, allowing slower but possible land transport from China.

  5. 4:54

    Negotiation Watch

    The US must watch for negotiations and ensure it does not declare victory prematurely.

Key points

  • 0:00

    The United States has blocked ships from docking at or leaving any Iranian port.

  • 0:41

    Iranian leadership power shifted to the IRGC after previous attacks killed top decision makers.

  • 0:41

    The IRGC derives most of its income from oil sales and smuggling rather than taxes.

  • 1:36

    Previous attacks destroyed the above-ground economy but failed to pressure the military strategists.

  • 1:36

    The blockade cuts IRGC export capacity from 2 million barrels a day to zero.

  • 2:45

    The IRGC controls missile fleets and drones capable of striking energy assets on the Arab side.

  • 2:45

    Iranian missiles and drones rely on parts manufactured in China.

  • 2:45

    A separate naval blockade is required to stop shipments arriving at the eastern port of Chabahar.

  • 2:45

    Land routes through Pakistan or Central Asia allow Chinese components to enter Iran despite sea blockades.

  • 4:54

    The US must watch for negotiations and avoid declaring victory before securing a better position.

Who and where

People · 1

  • Drawing of Donald Trump

    Donald Trump 1

    President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)

    Photo 1

1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)

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