China's Hold on Congolese Cobalt

Peter Zeihan 5 min

We must learn to get by with less because business as usual for tech advancement will simply not fly. More likely, the business as usual of tech advancement that we become used to is simply not going to fly.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Critical Role of Cobalt

    Cobalt is essential for stable battery chemistry in phones and electric vehicles, as lithium alone degrades too quickly.

  2. 0:33

    China's Monopoly on Congo

    Over half of global production comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo, where China controls mining camps like a slave state. Foreign forces cannot easily stabilize Congo because the capital lacks a functional port and the interior is inaccessible.

  3. 2:20

    Environmental Unsuitability for Westerners

    White people do not thrive in the hot jungle environment required to stabilize the region after China collapses. Europe and North America will likely partner with local authorities at arm's length rather than intervene directly. Global tech advancement must change because future flows of cobalt will not meet current needs. Tantalum, another critical material also found in Congo, faces similar supply risks and production issues. Tungsten from Myanmar offers a better path because it has less market concentration and a stronger central government.

  4. 4:25

    The Final Verdict

    We must learn to get by with less because business as usual for tech advancement will simply not fly.

Key points

  • 0:00

    You really do need the cobalt in order to stabilize the system.

  • 0:33

    Over half of the world's production comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo.

  • 0:33

    The Chinese basically run it like a slave state that actually makes the Belgian imperials of old blush.

  • 0:33

    The Congo River is only navigable a few miles from the coast.

  • 2:20

    And to be perfectly blunt, white people don't do well in that sort of environment.

  • 2:20

    So we would probably be talking about some sort of at-arm's length management system.

  • 2:20

    That's going to change the technological curve of where we're going.

  • 2:20

    Unfortunately, one of the other ones is something called tantalum, which is used for similar purposes.

  • 2:20

    But in a post-Chinese environment, you're probably going to have a stronger central government in Myanmar.

  • 4:25

    More likely, the business as usual of tech advancement that we become used to is simply not going to fly.

On the map

Map of the places in “China's Hold on Congolese Cobalt”

Who and where

Places · 10

  • Democratic Republic of the Congo 8
  • People's Republic of China 10
  • United States 1
  • Myanmar 4
  • Kinshasa 3
  • Wa State 2
  • Congo River 1
  • North America 1
  • Belgium 1
  • Europe 1

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