Global Energy Stressors: Kazakh Oil Exports

Peter Zeihan 6 min

Over a million barrels per day of Kazakhstan's oil capacity will likely go offline permanently due to the war. There is really nothing we can do about that loss of capacity.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Kazakhstan's Oil Export Crisis

    The video details how Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure have severely reduced Kazakhstan's oil exports, which rely heavily on Russian pipelines and ports. Ukrainian strikes on Russian processing centers prevent Kazakhstan from extracting sulfur and natural gas, blocking crude from entering normal pipelines. Kazakhstan is facing a 50 to 70 percent reduction in output from all of its major oil fields.

  2. 2:37

    Targeting the Shadow Fleet

    Ukrainian forces have shifted from attacking infrastructure to directly targeting shadow fleet vessels in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea.

  3. 3:03

    Limited Alternative Routes

    Kazakhstan's alternative export routes to China and Azerbaijan can only handle a fraction of its previous daily volume.

  4. 5:20

    Permanent Capacity Loss

    Over a million barrels per day of Kazakhstan's oil capacity will likely go offline permanently due to the war.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Kazakhstan relies on Russian ports for three quarters of its oil exports.

  • 0:00

    Ukrainian attacks have damaged processing centers needed to refine Kazakh crude.

  • 0:00

    Major fields like Tengiz and Kashagan face a 50 to 70 percent output drop.

  • 2:37

    Ukrainian forces now directly target shadow fleet vessels in the Black Sea.

  • 3:03

    The BTC pipeline can only handle one million barrels per day total.

  • 3:03

    Combined alternative routes cannot replace the lost Black Sea capacity.

  • 3:03

    Damaged ports slow tanker loading times from hours to days.

  • 3:03

    Satellite tracking allows Ukrainians to target tankers on specific routes.

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