Ukraine Is Shooting Fish in a Barrel

Peter Zeihan 4 min

Ukraine will stop Russia's significant oil export presence by destroying the non-reporting shadow fleet. The ports will eventually run out of storage facilities, cutting down production inland just as effectively as stopping the shadow fleet.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Ukraine Targets Shadow Fleet

    Ukraine attacks Russian ships while sparing compliant vessels.

  2. 0:38

    US Intervention Stops Attacks

    The US told Ukraine to stop hitting American infrastructure. Ukraine demands ship data and spares compliant vessels. Only non-reporting ships face attacks.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Ukraine has attacked about 200 shadow fleet vessels on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov during the past roughly two months.

  • 0:00

    Enough damage is inflicted on the shadow fleet that it's probably going to stop functioning later this year.

  • 0:00

    Stopping the shadow fleet will end Russia's presence as a significant oil exporter.

  • 0:38

    The United States government transmitted information to the Ukrainians that they weren't very happy about.

  • 0:38

    The US told Ukraine to stop attacking Novorossiysk because it sees it as American infrastructure.

  • 0:38

    Ukraine contacted every shipping company in the world and demanded ship names, transponders, courses, and port schedules.

  • 0:38

    Every shipping company in the world is complying except the Shadow Fleet.

  • 0:38

    Attacks on third parties have reached single digits while the Shadow Fleet is taking a complete pounding.

On the map

Map of the places in “Ukraine Is Shooting Fish in a Barrel”

Who and where

Places · 9

  • Russia 12
  • Black Sea 7
  • Dnipro 2
  • Ukraine 3
  • Tengiz Field 1
  • Sea of Azov 1
  • Kazakhstan 1
  • Georgia 1
  • United States 1

Organisations · 5

  • shadow fleet 7
  • first cabinet of Donald Trump 2
  • Exxon 1
  • Chevron Corporation 1
  • Federal Government of the United States 1

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