Should the US Military Invade Mexico?

Peter Zeihan 9 min

There is no sensible military option for the United States to invade Mexico because all strategies either fail or cause catastrophic economic damage. The only viable solution is to stop using fentanyl and cocaine rather than pursuing military action.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Rise of Violence

    Explains why violence in Mexico has increased due to the shift from agricultural cocaine to synthetic fentanyl.

  2. 1:32

    The Fentanyl Shift

    Contrasts the labor-intensive production of cocaine with the ease of manufacturing synthetic fentanyl. Describes how the Sinaloa Cartel's disintegration has led to hundreds of violent, independent small organizations.

  3. 3:55

    Military Option Analysis

    Evaluates five potential military strategies, noting that only one avoids severe economic consequences.

Key points

  • 0:18

    The violence stems from the nature of the drug war itself rather than Mexican policy.

  • 0:18

    Cocaine was an agricultural product requiring significant effort to produce and transport.

  • 0:18

    Fentanyl is a synthetic substance made in a lab that requires very little experience to cook up.

  • 1:32

    Producing fentanyl takes only a few man seconds compared to the hours required for cocaine.

  • 1:32

    The Sinaloa Cartel has experienced a slow-motion disintegration since El Chapo was captured.

  • 1:32

    The replacement Holistical New Generation cartel is an order of magnitude more violent than before.

  • 1:32

    Hundreds of small organizations now exist independently rather than within large cartel structures.

  • 3:55

    Using drones to monitor the border is ineffective against high-value drug smuggling volumes.

  • 4:42

    Sending special forces across the border has not moved the needle on reducing violence.

  • 6:56

    Invading and taking over northern Mexican cities would cause a recession four times worse than 2007.

  • 7:34

    Annexing northern Mexican states offers a robust economic and security case compared to other options.

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