The Shadow Fleet Is Sinking

Peter Zeihan 4 min

A ship is sinking off Oman, causing an ecological disaster three times as bad as the Exxon Valdez. The decrepit nature of the vessels is probably being their own worst enemy.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Sinking Shadow Fleet

    A Russian shadow fleet vessel is sinking off Oman, causing an oil spill larger than the Exxon Valdez disaster.

  2. 2:21

    Insurance and Future Aggression

    The incident raises questions about Russian insurance payouts and may force Ukrainians to sink more ships directly.

  3. 3:32

    Declining Global Oil Supply

    Russia and Iran are losing millions of barrels per day as their fleets are attacked or retired.

Key points

  • 0:00

    A shadow fleet vessel is sinking off the Omani posts in the Middle East.

  • 0:00

    The sinking ship carries about a million barrels and is taking on water.

  • 0:00

    The oil spill is at least three times as bad as what happened with the Exxon Valdez.

  • 0:00

    This is the first real incident with a shadow fleet vessel sinking on its own.

  • 0:00

    Normally such an event would lead to an explosion in insurance rates and decommissioning of every ship of its class.

  • 2:21

    It is an open question whether the Russian government will pay out for environmental restitution.

  • 2:21

    If Russia does not honor its policy, Ukrainians may sink a couple of ships directly.

  • 2:21

    No one will allow these ships anywhere near any of their ports if they are sunk directly.

  • 2:21

    The decrepit nature of the vessels is probably being their own worst enemy.

  • 2:21

    Another couple million barrels a day are disappearing as the shadow fleet gets retired.

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