The Revolution in Military Affairs: Water Wars

Peter Zeihan 6 min

Industrial bases and military power require water at the start of development. Uzbekistan will likely invade Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to control remaining water sources.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Difficulty of Moving Water

    Water is hard to move due to hydrogen bonding and high costs.

  2. 0:47

    Economic Development Follows Water

    Industrial bases and military power require water at the start of development.

  3. 2:50

    The Nile River Conflict

    Ethiopia and Sudan are taking water that was historically reserved for Egypt. Cotton plantations in Central Asia have dried up the Aral Sea.

  4. 5:03

    Upcoming Regional Conflict

    Uzbekistan will likely invade Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to control remaining water.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Water is hard to move because it clings to surfaces due to hydrogen bonding.

  • 0:47

    Moving large volumes of water requires expensive canals or energy-intensive pipes.

  • 0:47

    Economic development starts with water to grow food before building an industrial base.

  • 0:47

    Industrial bases are necessary to build a military capable of projecting power.

  • 0:47

    Countries that conquer dry lands must stay there to become meaningful powers.

  • 2:50

    Ethiopia and Sudan are diverting Nile water away from Egypt despite colonial treaties.

  • 2:50

    Egypt faces collapse or war if upstream nations continue taking water.

  • 2:50

    Central Asian cotton farming has dried up the Aral Sea by 90%.

  • 5:03

    Uzbekistan will likely invade Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to control remaining water sources.

  • 5:47

    The Central Asian conflict will be local because population centers are stacked together.

  • 5:47

    Water distribution conflicts in the US and elsewhere are rarely cross-border issues.

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