What Happens When China Runs Out of Water?
Peter Zeihan
4 min
The People's Republic of China is going to vanish in the next couple of decades. The People's Republic of China is going to vanish in the next couple of decades.
Chapters
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0:00
Northern China's Depleted Aquifer
Northern China has overdrafted its groundwater to the point where the aquifer is effectively gone. Following the Great Leap Forward, authorities industrialized water tapping to override local geography and prevent famine. This massive depletion occurred over forty years despite early warnings about the finite nature of the resource.
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2:09
The South-North Water Diversion Project
To counteract the lack of local water, a project pumps water from the Yangtze River northward through pipes and canals. This artificial system moves roughly one thousand miles to supply the northern watershed without changing existing farming practices. The reliance on this external source leaves the region vulnerable if the infrastructure is damaged.
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3:26
Strategic Vulnerability and Future Collapse
The canal system can be destroyed by just a few attacks in any war scenario. Consequently, between one-third and one-half of the Chinese population would lose the ability to farm if the water supply is cut off. These factors contribute significantly to the prediction that the People's Republic of China will vanish in the next couple of decades.
Key points
- 0:00
Northern China's aquifer is already gone.
- 0:00
The government industrialized tapping to override geography.
- 0:51
The Yellow River draws water from arid highlands.
- 0:51
Flood years and drought years both cause famine.
- 0:51
China drained the aquifer dry in 40 years.
- 0:51
The South-North Water Diversion Project moves water from the Yangtze.
- 0:51
The project runs roughly one thousand miles north.
- 0:51
Northern China depends on this artificial water project.
- 3:26
A few attacks can destroy the canal system.
- 3:26
One-third to one-half of the population cannot farm if water stops.
- 3:26
The People's Republic of China will vanish in the next couple of decades.
On the map
Who and where
Places · 6
- Northern China 4
- People's Republic of China 6
- India 2
- Zhejiang 1
- Yellow River 1
- Beijing 1
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