"Death to the Dictator" Protests in Iran

Peter Zeihan 4 min

Iran is having a real problem adapting to the Industrial Revolution, which argues for a change in system. Just don't expect it to be overnight.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Current Protests

    Chants of 'Death to the Dictator' have appeared at least 30 times across Iran, signaling a desire to overthrow the clerical regime.

  2. 0:21

    Economic Weakness vs. Historical Stability

    While oil money is gone, Iran's 2,500-year history shows only six regime changes, suggesting a resilient state that uses military force and slow integration to maintain control.

  3. 2:36

    Industrial Stagnation

    Iran faces an extended stagnation period because it cannot industrialize without oil money or foreign investment, making a system change likely but slow.

Key points

  • 0:00

    "Today we are taking a question from the Patreon crowd about Iran."

  • 0:21

    "The idea is it's time to overthrow the clerical regime and put in some other type of governance."

  • 0:21

    "The economic system in Iran is atrocious. They've lost most of their oil production, and the money that came in from that is what allows the place to be held together."

  • 0:21

    "That money is what funded Iran's ability to muck throughout the Middle East and mobilize sectarian minorities wherever they happen to be in order to cause problems for majority Sunni Muslim areas."

  • 0:21

    "There have only been six changes in continuity in 2,500 years of Persian history."

  • 0:21

    "Even after 2,500 years of doing this, only about 50% of the population of Iran today considers itself Persian."

  • 0:21

    "Iran today maintains a million-man army... to occupy its own not yet integrated populations."

  • 2:36

    "One of those six continuity changes was the Islamic Revolution back in 1979, which was... only 45 years ago."

  • 2:36

    "The change before that, the Shah, that only dated back to 1925."

  • 2:36

    "Iran has industrialized, but it's been in fits and starts, oftentimes funded by either oil money, which is no longer there, or foreigners who want to take their own piece of the pie."

  • 2:36

    "The Persians tend to stretch everything out as long as it can possibly go."

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