What's Up In the Middle East: Israel's Future

Peter Zeihan 8 min

The Israelis are going to have to figure out how to function in a world where the United States just really doesn't care about the Middle East now. They're too small they're too dependent on energy imports they're too independent on food imports they're too dependent on technology imports but there are partners out there that might work.

  • Benjamin Netanyahu
  • Donald Trump
  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Israel's Weak Coalition Government

    Israel lacks a stable majority, forcing weak coalitions that rarely last full terms.

  2. 2:05

    Netanyahu's Failed White House Meeting

    Netanyahu requested three things from Trump: free hand in Gaza, end to tariffs, and bombing Iran.

  3. 3:28

    Trump Rejects All Israeli Requests

    Trump refused all three requests, signaling the end of the US-Israel alliance structure.

  4. 4:08

    Gaza Has No Viable Solution

    There is no good solution for Gaza because there is nowhere to move 2 million people. Trump views the world as ripping off the US economically, leading to new tariffs on Israel. Trump has no intention of getting involved in a meaningful war with Iran.

  5. 6:29

    Netanyahu Is Politically Stuck

    Netanyahu cannot give Trump what he wants without rupturing his own domestic political coalition. Israel must figure out how to function without US security guarantees and find new partners.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Israel's governments rarely last their full term due to weak coalitions.

  • 2:05

    Netanyahu requested a free hand in Gaza during his White House visit.

  • 2:05

    Trump refused Netanyahu's request for an end to tariffs on Israel.

  • 2:05

    Netanyahu asked Trump to bomb Iran into the Stone Age.

  • 2:05

    Trump rejected all three of Netanyahu's requests at the White House.

  • 4:08

    There is no good solution for Gaza because there is nowhere to move 2 million people.

  • 4:08

    Trump has no intention of getting involved in a meaningful war with Iran.

  • 6:29

    Peace in Gaza can only happen by rupturing Netanyahu's domestic political coalition.

  • 6:29

    Israel must figure out how to function without US security guarantees.

Who and where

People · 3

  • Drawing of Donald Trump

    Donald Trump 18

    President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)

    Photo 1

  • Drawing of Benjamin Netanyahu

    Benjamin Netanyahu 10

    Prime Minister of Israel (born 1949), (1996–1999; 2009–2021; 2022–present)

    Photo 2

  • Drawing of Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy 1

    President of Ukraine since 2019

    Photo 3

1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)

2. Photo: Avi Ohayon, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Benjamin Netanyahu)

3. Photo: Press Service of the President of Ukraine, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Volodymyr Zelenskyy)

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