Winners and Losers of the Iran War: Ukraine and Russia
Peter Zeihan
7 min
The region used to export 22 million barrels of crude a day. It is now down to probably something between 10 and 12.
-
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
-
Vladimir Putin
-
Donald Trump
Chapters
-
0:00
Oil Supply Shortage
The region used to export 22 million barrels of crude a day. It is now down to probably something between 10 and 12.
-
0:46
Russian Profit Expectations
Oil prices had been moderate until the war started. Now they're regularly over $100 a barrel.
-
3:30
Ukrainian Drone Destruction
The Ukrainians have showcased a new set of hardware with a little bit longer range and have used it to completely destroy the export capacity of Russian oil exports from the Baltic Sea. Zelensky in the last couple of weeks has been all over the Persian Gulf signing deals specifically with Kuwait and Gutter and the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, each multi-billion dollar deals to invest in drone production.
-
5:45
New Geopolitical Alignments
Instead of the United States, it's the Europeans. Instead of NATO, it's Ukraine.
Key points
- 0:00
The region used to export 22 million barrels of crude a day. It is now down to probably something between 10 and 12.
- 0:46
Oil prices had been moderate until the war started. Now they're regularly over $100 a barrel.
- 3:30
The Ukrainians have showcased a new set of hardware with a little bit longer range and have used it to completely destroy the export capacity of Russian oil exports from the Baltic Sea.
- 3:30
Zelensky in the last couple of weeks has been all over the Persian Gulf signing deals specifically with Kuwait and Gutter and the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, each multi-billion dollar deals to invest in drone production.
- 5:45
Instead of the United States, it's the Europeans. Instead of NATO, it's Ukraine.
Who and where
People · 3
-
Volodymyr Zelenskyy 1
President of Ukraine since 2019
Photo 1
-
Vladimir Putin 1
President of the Russian Federation
Photo 2
-
Donald Trump 1
President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)
Photo 3
1. Photo: Press Service of the President of Ukraine, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Volodymyr Zelenskyy)
2. Photo: Пресс-служба Президента России, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Vladimir Putin)
3. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)
Related episodes
Ukraine FINALLY Hit Russia in the BEST Possible Place
Paul J. Warburg
Ukraine has reached a unique moment where it can strike Russian energy exports without losing critical political support. Ukraine has the least to lose politically while Russia has the most to gain, making major attacks on energy infrastructure inevitable.
The War in Iran is Hurting Russia More Than We Thought
Paul J. Warburg
This war is extremely bad news for Russia. The cons for Russia are vastly understated and much more durable in terms of timeframe.
Russia is Completely Folding Right Now
Paul J. Warburg
Russia's air defenses have never been weaker, and they continue to get weaker every single day. Right now, the war is going in a very, very clear direction.
Russia’s Oil Tycoons are Now Preparing for Sudden Collapse
Paul J. Warburg
Russia faces sudden economic collapse due to halted oil production and frozen infrastructure. The end of the war in Ukraine is getting closer as Russia runs out of money to fund its military.
Why Russians are Panicking About the War in Iran - with Professor Gerdes
Paul J. Warburg
America First policies weaken the U.S. reserve currency status and create power vacuums for rivals like China. The world is heading toward a more chaotic place where conflicts continue in different formats due to unchanging human nature.
AI-generated summary · model qwen3.5:9b-12k · prompt version whole-3.window-7.combine-10.s-f4be8e ·
video id -acUKR8XqXw ·
Watch on YouTube