The Paris Accords Can't Stop Climate Change
Peter Zeihan
6 min
The Paris Accords cannot stop climate change because they lack necessary funding and rely on a globalized system that is now breaking down. By the end of the century, we need to be starting to consider things like five and maybe even six.
Chapters
-
0:00
The Paris Accords' Fundamental Flaws
The agreement was never viable because finding common ground among vastly different nations is impossible. Advanced economies have reduced carbon, but developing nations need energy for industrialization, which inherently requires carbon-intensive sources. Renewable technologies like solar face high initial carbon costs and logistical delays due to transmission needs in cloudy regions like Europe.
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2:54
Globalization Disruption and Fossil Fuel Reliance
Without hyperglobalization, supply chains for complex low-carbon technologies break down, forcing nations to rely on local energy sources. Conflicts disrupt international oil and gas flows, prompting countries to switch to high-carbon domestic fuels like lignite coal or wood for security. This shift causes global carbon output to rise significantly as nations prioritize electricity access over emission reductions.
Key points
- 0:00
Finding common ground among countries as varied as the United States and Malawi is impossible.
- 0:00
Solar in particular requires so many inputs that its midterm carbon imprint is actually higher than what you would do with things like natural gas.
- 1:54
Places where it does work in Europe are because they're deindustrializing, which means they're just using less energy anyway.
- 1:54
Anything like the Paris Accords that doesn't come with a couple trillion dollars for basic research is dubious.
- 1:54
Solar specifically is the second most complicated supply chain in the world after high-end semiconductors with thousands of steps.
- 1:54
Lots of countries have deposits of things like coal at home or very close, including lignite which is about 20% water by weight.
- 4:22
At that point, the global civilization had already gone up 1.1 degrees from the baseline at the beginning of the industrial age.
- 4:22
We're now around 1.2, 1.3, and we're probably going to hit 1.5, assuming no significant changes, in 2030 to 2035.
- 4:22
As you break down globalization moving forward, the world is going to skid right by that two-degree number.
- 4:22
By the end of the century, we need to be starting to consider things like five and maybe even six.
On the map
Who and where
Places · 8
- Paris 4
- United States 1
- Europe 3
- Malawi 1
- Persian Gulf 1
- Japan 1
- Iran 1
- Ukraine 1
Organisations · 2
- Barack Obama Administration cabinet 1
- United Nations Environment Programme 1
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