China vs. Mother Nature: Can the Dikes Hold the Rain?

Peter Zeihan 4 min

Mass drownings in the capital would shatter political coherence. If conditions worsen, China could become underwater, leading to panic and widespread destruction.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Unprecedented Rainfall in Northern China

    Hebei, Beijing, and Tianjin have received over five feet of rain, exceeding annual averages, with more forecast.

  2. 0:32

    Vulnerability of the Yellow River Basin

    The North China Plain is flat and arid; the Yellow River's silt buildup raises riverbeds above floodplains, making dikes critical. If dikes break due to erosion from heavy rain, hundreds of thousands could die as the river floods populated zones. Mass drownings in the capital would shatter political coherence and break confidence in the government.

  3. 2:51

    Leadership Awareness and Summit Cancellation

    Chairman Xi canceled a summit with the EU because he is aware of potential social disruptions. At least six more inches of rain are expected, potentially turning isolated flooding into a broader tributary system. If conditions worsen, China could become underwater, leading to panic and widespread destruction.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Hebei, Beijing, and Tianjin have received over five feet of rain in a single event.

  • 0:32

    The North China Plain is a flat zone that is normally fairly arid.

  • 0:32

    Millennia of work have raised the Yellow River bed above surrounding floodplains.

  • 0:32

    Dikes must hold to prevent the river from pouring into populated zones.

  • 0:32

    Historical breaches have caused hundreds of thousands of deaths in populated areas.

  • 0:32

    Mass drownings in the capital would shatter political coherence.

  • 2:51

    Chairman Xi canceled a recent EU-Chinese summit due to awareness of social disruptions.

  • 2:51

    At least six more inches of rain are expected throughout the entire zone.

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