How Diesel Could Shape the Ukraine War
Peter Zeihan
3 min
If we actually go a six-month period or more where the Russians don't have enough fuel to keep their system operational from a military point of view, then we really have entered a new phase in this conflict. With the United States possibly about to remove the last remaining large supply of the global standards, that leaves the Russians completely high and dry.
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Donald Trump
Chapters
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0:00
Russia's Shift to Importer
The segment explains that Russia, once a top exporter, now imports diesel due to refinery damage.
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1:09
Military Reliance on Diesel
The segment details how Russian tanks and supply trucks depend on diesel for operations.
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2:20
Potential New Conflict Phase
The segment argues that a long-term fuel shortage could force Russia into a new phase of conflict.
Key points
- 0:00
Russia is now an importer because of all the damage the Ukrainians have been inflicting upon the Russian refining complex.
- 0:00
The shortage in Russia is probably in excess of about 1.5 million barrels a day of oil equivalent.
- 1:09
Their road network is basically local clustered around population centers.
- 1:09
Most military hardware that the Russians are using in the Ukraine war, especially tanks, supply trucks, are going to be using diesel as well.
- 1:09
Anything within about two, maybe even 300 kilometers of the front is getting hit by these drones all the time.
- 1:09
As you take out the fuel trucks, you basically snarl every aspect of the Russian attack.
- 2:20
Anything that the Russians have been doing now has been done with low amounts of fuel.
On the map
Who and where
Places · 6
- Russia 11
- Ukraine 5
- United States 3
- Belarus 1
- Kazakhstan 1
- India 1
People · 1
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Donald Trump 1
President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)
Photo 1
1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)
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