Will Putin Join the Miami G20 Summit?

Peter Zeihan 6 min

Putin may use the G20 summit to announce an invasion of a NATO country, forcing Trump to choose between Russia and the alliance. The outcome will determine if the US alliance completely shatters or remains intact.

  • Vladimir Putin
  • Donald Trump
  • George W. Bush
  • Marco Rubio
  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Invitation and Corruption

    Donald Trump invited Vladimir Putin to the G20 summit in Miami despite international arrest warrants, driven by personal property interests. Putin must be certain he will not face arrest during his visit, as multiple international warrants exist against him.

  2. 1:57

    The Alliance Fracture

    If Putin attends, other G20 leaders like those from the UK, Germany, and France may refuse to come due to the arrest warrants.

  3. 3:10

    The Ineffective Summit

    The G20 has become a talk shop since the 2007 financial crisis because member countries do not share common interests. Putin may use the summit to announce an invasion of Estonia or Latvia while sitting next to Trump, forcing a reaction. Such an invasion would force the US to choose between Russia and NATO, potentially causing the alliance to completely shatter.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Donald Trump invited Vladimir Putin to the G20 summit in Miami this fall.

  • 0:00

    Multiple international arrest warrants exist against Vladimir Putin for his role in the war in Ukraine.

  • 0:00

    The Trump family owns property in Russia, influencing their pro-Russia stance on the Ukraine war.

  • 1:57

    Putin must be 100% convinced he will not be arrested during his trip to Florida.

  • 1:57

    Leaders from the UK, Germany, France, and EU structures face arrest warrants alongside Putin.

  • 3:10

    The G20 has been a talk shop since the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis.

  • 3:10

    Putin may announce an invasion of Estonia or Latvia while sitting next to Trump.

  • 3:10

    An invasion during the summit would force Trump to decide what to do about Russia and NATO.

  • 3:10

    Such an event could cause the US alliance to completely shatter.

On the map

Map of the places in “Will Putin Join the Miami G20 Summit?”

Who and where

Places · 12

  • Russia 11
  • Ukraine 3
  • United States 2
  • Florida 2
  • Georgia 2
  • Germany 2
  • Miami 1
  • Latvia 1
  • Estonia 1
  • European Union 1
  • United Kingdom 1
  • France 1

People · 5

  • Drawing of Vladimir Putin

    Vladimir Putin 18

    President of the Russian Federation

    Photo 1

  • Drawing of Donald Trump

    Donald Trump 11

    President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)

    Photo 2

  • Drawing of George W. Bush

    George W. Bush 3

    43rd President of the United States (2001–2009)

    Photo 3

  • Drawing of Marco Rubio

    Marco Rubio 1

    72nd United States Secretary of State since 2025

    Photo 4

  • Drawing of Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy 1

    President of Ukraine since 2019

    Photo 5

1. Photo: Пресс-служба Президента России, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Vladimir Putin)

2. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)

3. Photo: Eric Draper, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (George W. Bush)

4. Photo: U.S. Department of State, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Marco Rubio)

5. Photo: Press Service of the President of Ukraine, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Volodymyr Zelenskyy)

Organisations · 2

  • G20 3
  • NATO 2

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