What’s Next for Iraq?

Peter Zeihan 6 min

The withdrawal of US troops leaves Iraq unstable, risking Iranian dominance in the south or a return to Sunni rule. Peace in the region is unlikely as history suggests Sunnis will rise again if the system becomes unmoored.

  • Saddam Hussein

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Artificial Structure of Iraq

    Iraq is an artificial state created by colonialism containing three distinct regions with conflicting demographics and resources. The country consists of Shia Arabs in the south, Kurds in the north, and Sunni Arabs in the middle.

  2. 1:45

    Historical Power Dynamics

    The Sunnis historically held total control under Saddam Hussein while enslaving or persecuting the other two groups.

  3. 3:28

    Current Instability and Future Risks

    With US withdrawal, Iran will likely destabilize the south while Sunnis may rise to power again.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Iraq is an artificial country created by colonialism after World War II.

  • 0:00

    The south contains the majority Shia population with massive oil fields.

  • 0:00

    The north is Kurdistan, a region split among rival families with difficult oil access.

  • 0:00

    Collective peak production in the south and north reached four to five million barrels per day.

  • 1:45

    The middle region consists of Sunnis who make up at most 20% of the population.

  • 1:45

    The Sunnis are the most united group due to their small size and lack of economic resources.

  • 1:45

    The Sunnis previously controlled everything while enslaving or persecuting the Shia and Kurds.

  • 3:28

    The current prime minister has no backing except for the United States.

  • 3:28

    Iranian-backed militias in the south can now overthrow the government and attack other regions.

  • 3:28

    The Kurds face renewed threats from outside forces now that American protection is gone.

  • 3:28

    History suggests Sunnis will emerge on top if the system becomes unmoored and foreigners leave.

On the map

Map of the places in “What’s Next for Iraq?”

Who and where

Places · 10

  • Iraq 10
  • Kurdistan Region of Iraq 3
  • Iran 3
  • Euphrates 1
  • Mesopotamia 1
  • Tigris 1
  • Baghdad 1
  • United States 5
  • Turkey 1
  • Saudi Arabia 1

People · 1

  • Drawing of Saddam Hussein

    Saddam Hussein 1

    Iraqi politician and revolutionary, president of Iraq from 1979 to 2003

    Photo 1

1. Photo: Unknown author Unknown author, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Saddam Hussein)

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