Is Trump Playing 4D Chess?

Peter Zeihan 5 min

The proposed strategy to box in China through an allied coalition is unlikely to succeed due to administrative dysfunction and flawed tariff tactics. The world faces a recessionary, stagflationary environment until this situation is resolved one way or another.

  • Donald Trump

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Proposed Alliance Strategy

    The speaker outlines the Treasury Secretary's plan to ally with partners before confronting China.

  2. 0:29

    The Reality of Coalition Building

    The speaker explains why building such a coalition is currently impossible due to administration chaos.

  3. 1:59

    The Flawed Tariff Calculation

    The speaker details how tariffs were calculated using a fabricated number based on trade deficits. The speaker describes how shifting justifications for tariffs against Canada make negotiation impossible.

  4. 4:18

    The Likely Outcome

    The speaker predicts a direct clash between leaders rather than a negotiated settlement.

Key points

  • 0:29

    The Treasury Secretary mentioned striking a deal with allies before confronting China.

  • 0:29

    The administration has threatened allies with invasion, hindering coalition building.

  • 0:29

    The administration gutted upper tiers of every department including defense and state.

  • 0:29

    There is no deep cadre of staff to carry out multiple negotiations simultaneously.

  • 1:59

    Tariffs have reached 125%, enough to freeze commerce between the two countries.

  • 1:59

    Chinese shipping companies face an additional fee on top of existing tariffs.

  • 1:59

    The tariff calculation used a fabricated number with no basis in reality.

  • 1:59

    No one knows what the administration is actually after regarding negotiations.

  • 1:59

    Canada faces tariffs based on shifting justifications like becoming the 51st state.

  • 4:18

    The likely outcome is a direct clash between Chairman Xi and Donald Trump.

Who and where

People · 1

  • Drawing of Donald Trump

    Donald Trump 6

    President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)

    Photo 1

1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)

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