Moving Beyond the Patriot Missile
Peter Zeihan
7 min
The United States must overhaul its defense strategy because deglobalization and Ukrainian innovation render current advanced systems unsustainable. The US will soon stop delivering Patriots, accelerating global anti-ballistic missile technology research.
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Donald Trump
Chapters
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0:00
The Patriot Missile Licensing Debate
The US denies Ukraine local production of Patriots due to IP and fear of cheaper, better Ukrainian iterations. Deglobalization breaks fragile supply chains needed for advanced chips, making high-end US weapons unsustainable.
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2:39
US Hemispheric Isolation
The US lacks nearby rivals, leading to over-engineered, expensive systems unlike other nations' desperate tech.
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4:09
Shift to Simpler Defense Systems
Future defense relies on simpler, basic technology rather than advanced systems requiring global supply chains. Ukraine must reduce Patriot costs to a quarter of a million to counter mass drone attacks. The US is slow to embrace drones while the rest of the world skips by with hostile swarms. The US will soon stop delivering Patriots, accelerating global anti-ballistic missile technology research.
Key points
- 0:00
The United States is unlikely to allow Ukraine to license production locally of Patriot missiles.
- 0:00
Handing over plans allows others to make them, but fear of cheaper Ukrainian iterations drives the decision.
- 0:00
Ukraine applies aerospace skills to develop weapon systems light years ahead of anyone else on the planet.
- 0:00
Deglobalization is causing a loss of access to global supply chains that allow sophisticated equipment to be made.
- 0:00
High-end chips below seven nanometers cannot deal with heat or stress when used in military equipment.
- 2:39
The United States is unique among all of the major powers in history in that it basically has a hemisphere to itself.
- 2:39
Other nations develop military systems with short-term desperation built in because rivals are relatively close.
- 4:09
The new weapon systems are simpler to build with more basic technology than advanced American systems.
- 4:09
Ukraine must reduce Patriot costs to a quarter of a million to serve the purpose in this new era.
- 4:09
The United States is not fully engaged in this new era and is being very slow to embrace drones.
- 4:09
Multiple powers will discover waves of hostile drones, and the US will not have enough Patriots for all needs.
- 4:09
The pace of anti-ballistic missile technology is going to skyrocket once American Patriots stop being delivered.
On the map
Who and where
Places · 3
- United States 12
- Ukraine 7
- Spain 1
People · 1
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Donald Trump 2
President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)
Photo 1
1. Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons · Wikidata · redrawn in our house style (Donald Trump)
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