A Post-American Alliance for the Middle East

Peter Zeihan 6 min

The United States is removing itself from the Eastern Hemisphere, forcing local powers to integrate for their own security. By 2030, these nations will be in a very different environment where they are preparing for a post-American world.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Current Illogical Alliance

    Representatives from Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia met in Mecca to form a joint defense pact against Iran, but this alliance is currently impractical because their primary security threats differ significantly. The United States initiated the conflict with Iran without consulting these nations and now appears ready to withdraw, leaving them to manage their own regional instability.

  2. 2:11

    Divergent Security Priorities

    Pakistan's primary concern is India, while Turkey focuses on Russia and Europe, making a unified front against Iran nonsensical at this moment. Saudi Arabia faces direct attacks from Iranian proxies, whereas Pakistan and Turkey do not consider Iran a hostile state in the traditional sense.

  3. 2:43

    The Post-American Reality

    As the United States retreats from the Eastern Hemisphere due to demographics and geopolitical shifts, local powers must secure their own neighborhoods without American security guarantees. This forces Sunni nations like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan to integrate economically and militarily as globalization fades.

  4. 4:40

    Long-Term Strategic Integration

    While the alliance seems silly now, it becomes common sense by 2030 as these nations prepare for a world where the US no longer dictates outcomes in the Persian Gulf. They are already starting to prepare for a post-American world despite current disagreements.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Representatives of Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia met in Mecca to build a local equivalent of NATO.

  • 0:00

    Saudi Arabia faces direct attacks from Iranian proxies on its oil production and transport assets.

  • 0:00

    Pakistan and Turkey do not consider Iran a hostile state in the traditional sense.

  • 0:00

    The United States started the war with Iran without consulting Saudi Arabia and now looks to leave.

  • 2:11

    Pakistan's primary security issue is India, not Iran.

  • 2:11

    Turkey is currently wrestling diplomatically and economically with the Europeans or preparing for a fight with the Russians.

  • 2:43

    The United States is entering a more retrenched phase due to demographics and geopolitics.

  • 2:43

    The Trump administration has spent most long-range weapons, making it impossible to fight a real war in the Eastern Hemisphere.

  • 2:43

    The United States position as the determinant of what happens in the Persian Gulf is fading very rapidly.

  • 2:43

    Removing the United States forces secondary powers to take care of their own neighborhood.

  • 2:43

    Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil exporter while Turkey and Pakistan are importers.

  • 2:43

    In a deglobalizing world, almost all crude can be consumed locally rather than exported.

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