Will Ukraine Make a Play on Crimea?

Peter Zeihan 7 min

Ukrainian drone attacks are strangling Russian logistics, turning Crimea into a strategic drain rather than a military springboard. The Russian logistical effort for the southern front will crumble if Ukrainians continue to bottle up convoys in kill zones.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    The Strategic Importance of Crimea

    Explains why control of Crimea is existential for both Russia and Ukraine. Describes how Ukrainian drones are cutting off supply lines to the peninsula.

  2. 2:22

    The Limits of Ukrainian Offense

    Clarifies that an immediate invasion is not happening due to transport difficulties.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Crimea has historically been a strong Russian outpost for projecting naval power.

  • 0:00

    Khrushchev transferred the Crimea Peninsula to the Ukrainian unit of the Soviet Union.

  • 0:00

    Russia has wanted Crimea back ever since the post-Cold War environment began.

  • 0:00

    Control of Crimea allows Russia to threaten the Dnieper River and Odessa.

  • 0:00

    There is no version of Ukraine where it does not control the Crimean Peninsula.

  • 0:00

    Ukrainian drones are pummeling all logistical lines supplying the Crimean Peninsula.

  • 3:46

    The Kerch Strait bridge can no longer handle large vehicles or trains.

  • 2:22

    Russia has evacuated most of its naval forces from Crimea due to drone threats.

  • 4:03

    Ukrainians aim to force Russian convoys into kill zones where drones can wipe them out.

  • 6:20

    Russia faces a volume issue as Ukrainian kill zones exceed Chinese truck production.

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