Say Goodbye to the Global Order

Peter Zeihan 4 min

Globalization is ending because naval blockades and attacks on transport infrastructure make global trade impossible. If you are dependent on global agriculture, energy, or manufacturing, you need to look at where you're getting your parts or your inputs.

Chapters

  1. 0:00

    Russian Oil Production Collapse

    Ukrainian attacks on Russian transport infrastructure have significantly reduced oil exports and production, with further declines expected as remote Siberian fields become inaccessible.

  2. 1:36

    Global Naval Expansion

    The United States has transitioned into a privateer navy by attacking Iranian vessels far from the Persian Gulf, signaling a formal break with globalization.

Key points

  • 0:00

    Ukrainian attacks have reduced Russian crude exports by over a million barrels per day.

  • 0:00

    Russian pipeline interlinkages are insufficient to shuffle exports from one port to another.

  • 0:00

    Remote Siberian fields freeze solid in winter and require redrilling if shut down.

  • 0:00

    Russia prefers reducing production in southern zones like Bashkuristan and Tatarstan.

  • 1:36

    Current Ukrainian attack rates will blow through remaining Russian buffer production within another month.

  • 1:36

    Permanent reductions in Russian oil output are expected by the end of May.

  • 1:36

    The United States has widened conflict to target Iranian vessels thousands of miles from the Persian Gulf.

  • 1:36

    Globalization is broken because no place in the world is safe from American naval reach.

  • 1:36

    Every nation with a navy will now enforce its own littoral, disrupting global agriculture, energy, and manufacturing.

  • 1:36

    Dependent nations must write off inputs or customers located in zones with hostile navies.

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